How much waste were we going to be generating?
In 2009, Access Economics projected how much waste would be generated in 2014–15 based on data points from 1996–97, 2002–03 and 2006–07. The conclusion:
Assuming both total waste and the share of total waste diverted to recycling continue to grow at similar rates to those demonstrated in recent years … the volume of waste generated would increase to more than 63 million tonnes and the average national diversion rate would reach 56% by 2014–15
Employment in waste management and recycling, Access Economics July 2009.
The National Waste Report 2016 reported on 2014–15 data. Excluding fly ash, the results are quite different.
Rather than generating 63 million tonnes as project, Australia generated 53 million tonnes.
Rather than a projected average national diversion rate of 56%, the diversion rate was 61%.
And landfill has sat at about 20 million tonnes per year. For the past 20 years. Compare that with the projections which expected landfill to increase to 27 million tonnes.
So two conclusions:
It is pretty risky to bet on big increases in landfill generation. Or big decreases for that matter.
And at least as important as the growth in recycling is the growth in avoiding waste in the first place.
The National Waste Report 2010 also made some projections, working with three scenarios. First, the projections.
The scenarios were:
Scenario 1: population growth plus low additional waste generation (1% pa) and a ‘business as usual’ recovery rate of 51.5%
Scenario 2: population growth plus higher additional waste generation (3% pa) and a ‘business as usual’ recovery rate of 51.5%
Scenario 3: jurisdictions’ existing strategies and targets for waste reduction and increased recovery are achieved for the period from the end of FY 2006–07 to the end of FY 2020–21
Clearly, we are either seeing low growth in waste generation, or jurisdictional strategies and target are working. Landfill data suggests the latter.
That’s not quite the story we tend to hear or tell.
Instead, we talk of creaking toward targets off in the hazy distance, landfills bursting at the seams, waste everywhere we look, not enough done to keep up.
I wonder who would be so bold as to prognosticate for the next 10 years? What would be the bet?
I’d be willing to predict that landfill won’t exceed 20 million tonnes per year. That waste generation will go up, but not by as much as is expected. That diversion rates will get better and the economy will do better.
I’m not willing to bet on how. I tend to think we will see the entire industry reframed. The stars are aligning, and there is a limit to the end of pipe waste management game. That will happen quickly.
The real gains will be made at the front of the line, stopping waste from being waste, and in the fine grained collection and processing solutions to get better at recycling. The big “economies of scale” solutions won’t, ironically enough, scale.
The big picture output of a line on a graph is ever so steady improvement. Beneath the surface, opportunity simmers and seethes.
There is change afoot.
