Donald Trump lost and he knows it — but it may not matter
Analysis by John Barron
The 95-minute United States presidential debate was gruelling at times.
You certainly got the sense that Republican candidate Donald Trump, who came out of the gates in a very strong way, was scoring lots of points on the issue of trade and trying to bring businesses and jobs back to the US — a core theme of his economic populist message.
But after half an hour, he started to flag and repeat himself.
He was all over the shop and, after an hour-and-a-half, the wheels were coming off and he was looking unhinged.
Mr Trump, who had not talked for more than 16 or 17 minutes in any of the candidate debates, was found out yesterday.
A lack of preparation did him no good at all.
Mr Trump lost the debate — and he knows it — but it may not matter.
There was a very telling moment towards the end of the debate, where Mr Trump said: “I was going to say something extremely rough to Hillary, to her family, and I said to myself: ‘I can’t do it. I just can’t do it. It’s inappropriate. It’s not nice’.”
That is the thing somebody says when they have lost an argument.
Apparently he had something about Bill Clinton and his extramarital affairs.
He and Mr Clinton’s former lover Gennifer Flowers were tweeting about her sitting in the front row of the debate.
He was clearly considering whether he should go there or not.
But, after being widely found to be the loser, I suspect he might go there next time.
He has hinted he is not going to hold back in the future.
Temperament damaging for Trump
Mr Trump was baited into discussing the issue of temperament, and that is damaging for him because temperament is the key word that the Clinton campaign is trying to use to dissuade people from voting for him.
It is a question of his temperament.
For Mrs Clinton, it is a question of her judgement and honesty — but for Mr Trump, it is his temperament.
Getting him to use the word “temperament” was a victory.
We saw Mrs Clinton successfully baiting Mr Trump, drawing him in to discussing issues such as his tax returns, getting him to essentially concede he does not pay any federal income tax.
Mrs Clinton then pretty deftly said he had not given money to fighting forces and veterans and he is proud of that.
Mr Trump could not resist.
When he said he would release his tax returns when Mrs Clinton released her emails, she did not bite and hammered the tax returns.
“First, maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is. Second, maybe he’s not as charitable as he claims to be,” she said.
How many truly undecided voters are swayed to one side or another will be fascinating to see as the more solid polls come out.
There were some reasonable polls from CNN yesterday that said Mrs Clinton won by 62–27 — the third-largest winning debate.
Sometimes these debates can be decisive.
With high negatives on both candidates, it will be interesting to see whether this will shift the dial at all.
I suspect it will not make a huge difference, but I have been surprised a number of times in this campaign already. I could be surprised again.
The lesser of two evils
Mrs Clinton’s 62 to 27 per cent win in a snap post debate poll from CNN was the third strongest win for any candidate in a presidential debate. Only Mitt Romney in the first debate of 2012 and Mr Clinton in 1992 had a more clear cut victory.
In 1992 Mr Clinton’s debate performance helped reassure Americans he could “feel their pain” over economic issues, and in 2012 Mr Romney presented himself as the businessman with the answers to America’s economic woes. His debate performance briefly boosted him in the polls, but that did not last.
Mr Trump is no Mr Romney, but then again, Hillary is not Bill.
They remain the candidates with the highest negatives of anyone to run for the White House in the modern era.
Ultimately this election will come down to who voters see as the lesser of two evils.
