The Burnaby By-Election, Singh’s Playbook, The Battle and The War
A familiar digital strategy may carry Jagmeet Singh to victory in Burnaby South, but New Democrats will have to chart a new path to Ottawa in October.
Welcome back. In the inaugural entry to Absolutely Neutral, we took a look at the conditions that left the Liberal Party, and Justin Trudeau in particular, uniquely suited to capture a majority government in 2015. By contrasting a welcoming and approachable personality against Stephen Harper’s strict nature, and layering overtop of it an expansive digital network, Trudeau was able to mobilize new voters and drive supporters to the polls. The ongoing scandal around SNC-Lavalin, however, is the opposition’s most powerful weapon yet for fracturing the fragile red coalition. Now the attacks, tweets, and memes are flying fast. With the Conservatives and NDP smelling blood in the water, this is a crucial time for every party.
But first, onto today’s update, which travels west to British Columbia…
The Burnaby By-Election
Although a trio of by-elections are set totake place next week, all eyes will be on Burnaby South. It is here where NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finally hopes to earn a seat in Parliament and silence his critics.
A number of favourable conditions make Singh the one to beat going into the by-election. Not only was the seat vacated by NDP MP Kennedy Stewart when he decided to run for mayor of Vancouver, but Singh’s chief rival at the outset of the campaign, Liberal Karen Wang, was forced to drop out midway through the race after the StarMetro Vancouver reported on a racist WeChat post made by her campaign. Her replacement, Richard Lee, has not seemed to stand out either. Not only is his party’s leader on the cusp of a growing scandal, but Lee seemed to invite negative coverage from the first debate when he suggested the United Nations should be tasked with regulating speech online to stem the flow of misinformation.
By contrast, Singh himself has ventured into Burnaby South with a number of personal and structural advantages. Not only is his political future on the line and the party eager to see its leader in the House of Commons, but the unusual dynamic of a federal party leader campaigning for a seat means that Singh was guaranteed from the start to dominate media coverage of the by-election. He is its narrative centre, with all other candidates, controversies, and priorities revolving around him, affording him the chance to position himself as the one best suited to be a political force in the riding.
That wealth of mainstream media attention bolsters Singh’s digital campaigning. He is adept at using tools like Instagram and Facebook to speak directly to the residents of Burnaby South, building his profile and drawing supporters despite not being a longtime resident of the riding. Even a cursory glance at his social media presence shows daily posts of Singh speaking to issues and broadcasting his newfound love for Burnaby, as well as meetings with voters, and shots of campaign volunteers hard at work. Like he did during his leadership bid in 2017, Singh has put great emphasis on using technology as a bridge to reach new constituencies, connecting with people where they already are in language and formats they are already comfortable with to translate these connections into votes.
[Singh] is this by-election’s narrative centre, with all other candidates, controversies, and priorities revolving around him.
Together, these elements — the personal motivation, the party structure support, the media coverage, and a brand designed to drive votes — would suggest Singh has an advantage over his opponents in the by-election. However, the looming fall election adds complexity to his candidacy and his approach.
Singh’s Playbook
Were Singh simply a candidate, with all of his focus on a single riding, winning a seat would be enough. But as the New Democrats’ leader, he is forced to look beyond his own immediate success and set his party up for victory in the fall. So while he’s been extolling the virtues of the Burnaby scenery on Instagram, he has also spent the last several weeks criticizing the Liberals and announced a series of policy initiatives designed to speak to the nation. Proposals include making housing more affordable, ushering in universal pharmacare, and combating climate change, all of which are meant to mark a sharp break from the progressive facade of the Trudeau Liberals and present voters with a serious left-wing alternative as the government of Canada.
Put another way, the NDP’s strategy has been to offer a series of policies designed to appeal to progressive values, and at their centre, place a leader with whom people are encouraged to directly connect. As those digital connections spread, they should augment the technological apparatus underneath designed to turn out more donations, volunteers, and votes. Sound familiar?
In this way, Singh’s campaign playbook is simply an extension of Trudeau’s, with the policy details simply tacked further left and a promise to finally deliver. That makes it shaky.
The Battle and the War
Recall a key output of aggregation theory that allowed Trudeau to win power in 2015: as he built a direct relationship with voters over the campaign through digital tools, the Liberals’ campaign structure grew more powerful at the expense of the NDP. With it becoming increasingly clear that momentum and money was behind the Liberals, the party’s dominance only accelerated, sucking the wind from the NDP’s sails. What undergirded the Liberals’ entire campaign though, was its positioning as the only viable means of neutralizing Stephen Harper and the Conservatives after nearly a decade-long rule. Throwing that choice into such stark relief for the public informed the policy proposals and digital networking that followed it, helping Trudeau amass the money and votes that eventually delivered his majority government.
Four years later, the political landscape has shifted significantly. The choice voters face in October seems much more muddled, and that is a problem if Singh runs a strategy that falls in Trudeau’s shadow. Not only is the NDP suffering from anemic fundraising figures and stalling in public opinion polls, the Liberals’ massive infrastructure remains, allowing the party to maintain its sizeable mobilization advantage. Simply rehashing the same digital tropes with an orange twist will not be enough to overcome the structural challenges in place. Rather, the NPD is opting for a strategy designed for the last war, one Trudeau already won. Indeed, while his digital profile has grown since he began running in Burnaby South at a rate that far outpaces his local opponents, it pales in comparison to the growth rate of Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s audience, who has similarly been attacking the Liberals over the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Early days though it may be, this would indicate that it is Scheer, not Singh, who would seem to be the better candidate. Engaged Canadians so far seem to agree.
On top of this, it is difficult for Singh to convincingly communicate his vision for a more progressive Canada, endear himself to voters across the country, and lay the groundwork for a fall campaign that offers voters a better experience, while he himself is fighting for his political life. Along with the trials and tribulations that come with any election, Singh has also been forced to beat back a series of criticisms from his predecessor, Tom Mulcair, who has taken to regularly criticizing Singh’s leadership. Combined with a series of stumbles on foreign policy issues, a swath of current NDP MPs announcing they will note seek reelection, and reports that he would face his ouster should he lose the by-election, and the idea that Singh is unable to lead the New Democrats on a serious challenge to Trudeau is only reinforced. Crucially, they undercut the power of his policy announcements and limit broad, long-term party support.
With coverage, outreach, and infrastructure on his side, conditions seem favourable in Burnaby South. However, the road to victory looks much more daunting. This is where Jagmeet Singh finds himself: fighting for a seat, for power, and his party all at the same time. Should he win in Burnaby, he will at best have met expectations, not surpassed them, and the party will still be left trying to convince Canadians that the NDP is up to the challenge of guiding the country for the first time in its history. Though he seems convinced of his strategy, New Democrats would be wise to chart their own course as a party. Otherwise, Singh may find that while he wins the battle of Burnaby, it may cost him the war for Ottawa.
