Is civilisation as we know it really collapsing?
Part 1: Factors in Collapse
David Attenborough stood up at the UN a year ago today and told the assembled grandees that the future of the world was in their hands. Only shortly before the Att spoke, Paul Ehrlich (of The Population Bomb fame) had once more predicted annihilation in decades for humanity due to population growth and over-consumption.
It was about 10 years ago when I can first remember first thinking ‘we are like Rome under Caligula’ in response to a growing unease about the human obsession with self [indulgence] to the exclusion of all else. I don’t think I immediately connected the thought to the collapse of civilisation. I thought about it only with a sense that something was going mightily wrong in society. That we were taking a wrong road. I began to sense, to just smell on the air, an underlying veil of fear pulsating through people. Sometimes I thought I could almost see it like a cloud of dark colour hovering around people, organisations and buildings where this emergent toxic culture had taken root.
Once a thought enters your head, it has a tendency to lie low at times and at other times push its way to the fore. As is often the case with ideas, they behave a little like a neighbour’s cat who prefers your food to theirs. It kept coming back and asking to be let in.
Synthesising the work of giants is ambitious. Attempting to summarise all the key tenets of the collapse of civilisations when you’ve spent the vast majority of your life as a communications strategist is possibly quite daft. But it’s an essential base to understand what we need to do in organisations, business and society if we are to avert the collapse that seems to be stealthily approaching.
Nefer-rou and Ipu-wer were chroniclers of the collapse of Ancient Egypt said this of the ongoing collapse around them: “What had never happened had happened. The land is completely perished, so that no remainder exists,” concluded Nefer-rohu. Ipu-wer could only regard mankind as a failure and wish that it would disappear: “Ah, would that it were the end of men! That there were no conception and no birth! Then would the earth cease from turmoil and be at rest.”
It did not occur to either Nefer-rohu or Ipu-wer to consider that there might be other civilisations suffering a similar fate, or to ask why the catastrophe had befallen them. It is not remotely surprising that the two Egyptian writers, with no precedent or record of comparable human experience to guide then, did not see in the cataclysm anything other than malign fate.
If our civilisation is in danger of collapse, we have one thing going for us that no other human civilisation has had before us. We know how, why and what happened to other civilisations. We also know a great deal about how some civilisations have brought themselves back from the brink of social and ecological collapse.
What factors have led to the collapse of previous civilisations?
The collapse of previous civilisations on earth — from the Mayans to the Minoans — did not depend on any single critical factor but the interconnectivity of a number of different factors. In other words, they were brought about by complex systemic failures. It’s also true to say that many civilisations — the Icelandic nation is a good example — recovered from near collapse with stringent and focused action. And that others, suffering the same set of conditions as the Mayans or Ancient Egyptians, did not collapse but merely declined.
Experts and authors such as Sir John Glubb, Joseph Tainter, Jared Diamond and many more authorities on history, anthropology and paleontology have identified a number of key factors which have contributed to collapse, in many different combinations. I am culling what I think of as valuable information from each, without going into the deeper study you can find in any of their work (see footnote).
The common factors which were present in the story of the Mayans, Minoans, Egyptians, the people of Angkor Wat, Easter Island, the Aztecs, the Assyrians and even the Romans are these:-
1.Climate change (natural and human-induced)
During the period that heralded the eventual collapse of the Ancient Egyptian empire, the Nile river, which was the primary source of water for drinking and crop irrigation, was affected over a period of approximately 100 years by unusually cold and dry weather for the region. Archeologists have shown that the Faiyum, a lake of some 65 metres deep, had completely dried up, having evaporated over time. These low floods were related to global climatic cooling which reduced the amount of rainfall in Ethiopia and East Africa.
In Iceland, researchers have detected a transition from birch and grassland vegetation to arctic conditions in about 2150 BC. This correlates with a shift to drier climate in south-eastern Europe c.2200–2100 BC. Also, the reappearance of oak at White Moss, UK, suggests fluctuating wetness in around 2190–1891 BC. In Italy, drier conditions are found around 2200–1900 BC in Lake Castglione.
When scientists made a high-resolution study of dust deposition from Kajemarum Oasis in north-eastern Nigeria, the study conclusively revealed that a pronounced shift in atmospheric circulation occurred in around 2150 BC. This data indicates that an abrupt, short-lived event of cold climate led to less rainfall and a reduction of water flow in a vast area extending from Tibet to Italy.
Whilst the Nile had always been unpredictable, prone equally to lowered levels as it was to flooding, the period of colder weathers damaged the predominant crops which were used to warm weather. Combined with low rainfall, this caused widespread crop failures and famine, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths from dehydration and starvation. It put the final nail in the coffin of this once great civilisation. A significant natural climate shift finished off the world’s first advanced socialist state which had already undergone incoming insurgencies and civil war.
The highly advanced Mayan civilisation abruptly died out some time around 900AD. The researchers used sediment samples from Lake Chichancanab, Mexico, to determine that in a period of 100 years annual precipitation in the Mayan region dropped by 50% and up to 70% causing years of extreme drought. The research is important as it goes to show just how devastating changes in the climate can be to human populations.
The layers of sediment under the lake were carefully analysed to build a model of the climate conditions in the area including data like temperature and rainfall. During periods with less rain, the lake’s volume would shrink, as the water evaporated lighter particles would have evaporated first, leaving behind heavier elements.
The Minoan civilisation, famous for its elaborate palace at Knossos built Europe’s first paved roads and running water systems some five thousand years ago. The ancient Greeks wove its magnificence into their myths; it was the home of King Minos and his man-eating bull, the Minotaur, which roamed the palace labyrinth. Whether or not there was a minotaur, what is known is that Minoan civilisation came to an abrupt and unexpected end. Although it has taken centuries of geology, archaeology and speculation, it is now generally recognised that one of the greatest natural eruptions of all time which took place on the island of Thera, reduced global temperatures through the amount of sulphur thrown into the atmosphere which caused significant crop failure over a number of decades. It is largely believed that the immediate resultant tsunami crushed the shores of Crete, and combined with the destruction of Thera which was a major trading partner, and the catastrophic crop failures, that societial structures for control broke down and left them vulnerable to being easily conquered when the Greeks finally arrived.
All three of these highly developed civilisations were brought to a close by natural climate change, but all illustrate the immense damage that abrupt climate change can wreak upon a civilisation.
2. Inadvertent damage and resource depletion of the environment (mainly through agriculture and because of a lack of systems thinking)
There are seven different ways in which previous civilisations have damaged their natural resources and depleted the environment on which they were dependant. They are deforestation and habitat destruction; soil erosion and contamination; water pollution and misuse; depleting food stocks whether wild mammals, birds or fish; introducing non-native species into an ecosystem whether plant, animal or insect; human population growth; and the per capita impact of those humans.
Historically almost all of these factors have been directly related to the pursuit of agriculture. As populations have grown, so has their need for food. They adopt intensification practices from monocropping, terracing, irrigation, double cropping and expanding to less suitable land. Agricultural damage eventually occurs to the more marginal, difficult-to-manage land from which civilisations have to retreat. This causes food shortages, starvation, civil unrest and eventually wars and collapse.
One of the most famous examples of environmental depletion is the story of Easter Island. Rapa Nui, as was called by its own people, is a Chilean island in the South Pacific originally thought to be colonised by voyaging Polynesians. It is most famous for its iconic statues or Moai which have made it a great tourist destination.
Early settlers clearly arrived in canoes and were ocean going people who brought with them a tradition of fishing but also of cultivating the land for crops. A thriving society estimated at up to 15,000 people grew by the mid 10th to 15th centuries during which the famous statues were erected as, scholars believe, monuments to the dead who provide sustenance to the living.
Unfortunately as the population grew, so did their agricultural impact. More and more forests were cut down to cultivate the land and provide fishing boats until the island had been completely deforested. Soil began to deplete and run off without the trees to absorb water and support soil structure. Without the trees fishing became impossible because they could no longer carve boats. Soon the islanders’ entire system of producing abundant food declined rapidly. Accelerated by the accidental importation of rats, the entire fragile ecosystem on this tiny island collapsed and so did it’s ability to support the population.
By the time Captain Cook arrived on the island in the mid 18th century, islanders had toppled many of the statues in frustration with the gods, there were rumours of cannibalism and the once thriving community was starving and much reduced. They had completely missed their own role in their demise.
3. Invasion by hostile forces (use or loss of military power)
It’s difficult to pinpoint any single civilisation that collapsed solely because of invasion by hostile forces. The success of hostile forces only happens when the civilisation under attack has lost whatever gave it the strength to withstand attack in the first place. That may be a combination of moral, economic, or ecological factors.
The most common example cited is the fall of Western Roman civilisation, which lasted for just over 500 years, to the conquering German Goths around 476AD. Although the Romans has fought the barbarians in northern Europe for centuries, there came a point when the might of the Romans could no longer withstand the onslaught of the Goths and the Emperor Romulus Augustulus was deposed.
Yet the Goths could possibly never have succeeded had it not been for the combined failures of the Roman state which had occurred in the immediate preceding decades. These included a financial crisis brought on by constant warfare, the split of the empire into east and west, administrative failures through over-expansion, government corruption and instability, the rise of Christianity which undermined the value and belief system, and the weakening of their military might through allowing mercenaries into the once purely Roman legions.
4. Loss of relationships and connections to local neighbours (including within own tribal system)
Most civilisations in our history have had some form of close neighbours, or at the very least important trading partners or strong cultural relationships which make them mutually dependent. If one partners weakens for any reason, the other is also likely to suffer disturbance and disruption.
5. Failure of religion, purpose and faith systems
In the Fate of Empires and Search for Survival, Sir John Glubb remarked “Genghis Khan, one of the most brutal of all conquerors, claimed that God had delegated him the duty to exterminate the decadent races of the civilised world. Thus the Age of Conquests often had some kind of religious atmosphere, which implied heroic self-sacrifice for the cause. But this spirit of dedication was slowly eroded in the Age of Commerce by the action of money. People make money for themselves, not for their country. Thus periods of affluence gradually dissolved the spirit of service, which had caused the rise of the imperial races.”
We are more than familiar with exposure to the failures of the Roman Catholic Church after many centuries of hidden abuse. The scandal of corrupt clergy and sexual abuse inside the Church has done much to erode its standing in the world. As early as the 1990s, in the UK we were calling that decade the era of the death of deference, where institutions began to lose our trust and faith. The Edelman Trust barometer shows trust in institutions at an all time low. Only one in five feels that the system is working for them, with nearly half of the mass population believing that the system is failing them.
6. Increasing polarities in social systems creating inequality and injustice (economics, law, finance, commerce, social support structures)
The hierarchy was appeared in many ancient civilisations was at first a way of managing the social system. Large groups of emerging civilisations were often uneducated but useful in industrial enterprise — from building pyramids to the industrial revolution of the 19th century. As education grew in each civilisation, and wealth accrued at vast levels, often corruption leaked in.
“The first direction in which wealth injures the nation is a moral one. Money replaces honour and adventure as the objective of the best young men. Moreover, men do not normally seek to make money for their country or their community, but for them-selves. Gradually, and almost imperceptibly, the Age of Affluence silences the voice of duty. The object of the young and the ambitious is no longer fame, honour or service, but cash. Education undergoes the same gradual transformation. No longer do schools aim at producing brave patriots ready to serve their country. Parents and students alike seek the educational qualifications which will command the highest salaries. The Arab moralist, Ghazali (1058–1111), complains in these very same words of the lowering of objectives in the declining Arab world of his time.” Sir John Glubb
Sound familiar? You know it does!
7.Loss of core human virtues; morality, decency, honesty, integrity, compassion, empathy, love
Enter Caligula, the subject of my first thought. Long before the eventual collapse of the Western Roman Empire, ‘something wicked had that way come’ into the bowels of Roman high society. It’s worth highlighting that the much vaunted virtues espoused by writers like the Stoic Marcus Aurelius and by Cicero were often only of discussion by the wealthy classes of Rome’s elite. There is more than enough evidence of Rome’s mob appetite for death and destruction, and amoral living. They were the more common ideals to live by, to aspire to.
What are the correlations with 21st century civilisation?
It’s not hard looking at the above list to imagine that we are at risk of collapse.
We know we are at real risk from global climate change.
We know we are at real risk from soil degradation and infertility.
We know we at real risk from biodiversity loss which threatens our whole life support system.
We can see a global breakdown of inter-nation relationships — from the increasing tensions between the US and China on trade, the US and Russia on security, and of course Brexit is a good example of withdrawing from neighbour cooperation.
We see an ongoing issue of militarisation, yet equally our security challenges arise in our contemporary world from cyber security too with our systems under constant attack.
We know that there has been a decline in interest in moderate religion and a rise in interest in radical versions of Christianity and Islam.
We can all see or sense a breakdown in the core human values that the early Greek civilisation prized.
Collapse is an extreme form of decline where entire civilisations simply disappear. The gradual decline of a civilisation does not mean that a collapse is inevitable. Any society may experience gradual shifts due to the rise of a neighbouring civilisation, a change in the political focus, or the emergence of new technology. It is only when there is a convergence of multiple areas in which a society may decline over time — such as politically, economically, socially in military dominance and ecologically — that a society shifts from general decline and change into collapse.
The rise of China as an economic power whose might could now compare to the influence of its neighbour, the United States, does not of itself mean that one or other will collapse or even decline.
In the next post I’ll share the stages of collapse.
With grateful thanks to the works of the writers listed below.
Further reading (if you’re not all collapsed out by this long post)
Joseph Tainter: Collapse of Complex Societies
Sir John Glubb: The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival
Jared Diamond: Collapse
Margaret Wheatley: Who Do We Choose To Be
