MLB Opening Day DFS Rundown

Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw — I don’t think we have to go into too much detail here. Kershaw is the greatest pitcher in the game who rounded into form in Spring Training coming off last year’s injury, and he draws about as juicy of a matchup as you can hope for at home on Opening Day. Don’t get cute, just lock and load.

Jon Gray — Gray is a DFS darling because of his strikeout upside and usually affordable price tag, and he lands in a nice upside spot here. The Brewers offense will swing and miss/strikeout a ton, so there’s a great ceiling for Gray here. The Brew Crew can be pretty dangerous in Miller Park even against RHP, so Gray is not without risk, but even if he gives up a few runs, the strikeout upside should mask any issues.

Ervin Santana — You can obviously make a case for guys like Strasburg, Verlander and Duffy, who are in good spots themselves, but if you’re paying down in GPPs, Santana is a sneaky option. The Twins lineup projects to be pretty brutal, which makes Duffy an excellent play, but in massive field GPPs (and particularly as an SP2 on two pitcher sites), I like getting some Santaa exposure. No one ever wants to click on his name, but in the 2nd half of last year, he really turned it on. He ended last year with a 10% Swinging Strike rate, but he was well above 10% in August and September, and was frequently up around 25–30% in K rate during that timeframe as well. He clearly found something in his arsenal during that time, which included a couple successful outings against this Royals team. While the Royals do get Moustakas back, they lost Kendrys Morales in the offseason and are trotting out a pretty weak lineup against RHP in general. I’ll be taking a few shots at Santana in a home matchup at super low ownership.

Stacks

Orioles — Marco Estrada is a bizarre case in that he is very home run prone, and you’ll frequently want to stack against him. However, as silly as it sounds, he often seems to squeak by without truly getting blown up. But I’m a stubborn Mfer, and the O’s possess too much upside here not to stack them up. You can’t just stack any team against Estrada, but nearly every Oriole hitter has crushed Estrada’s combination of slow fastball/cutter and changeup with extreme Exit Velocity, and they have too much upside in their lineup with all the power. I even like going a little contrarian here and including Schoop, Seth Smith and Wellington Castillo who all profile really well against Estrada (as do Machado and Trumbo).

Rockies — I am an avid supporter of stacking the Rockies when they’re on the road because you will generally get them at lower ownership, and they still possess massive upside with extreme power and even some speed. I don’t think it’s crazy to expect a career minor league who gives up a ton of hard contact like Junior Guerra to regress this year, and the Rockies are a great team to expose that, especially in a great hitting environment when there aren’t many of those this early in the year. Give me Blackmon, Story, Arenado and CarGo here in GPPs.

Reds — I think the Reds are super sneaky tomorrow, as I expect a decent amount of people to try to target Phillies hitters against journeyman Scott Feldman, but the Reds possess a ton of upside in this same game. Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza set the table with massive stolen base upside, and Joey Votto and Adam Duvall have the power upside you look for in GPPs right behind them. Jeremy Hellickson had a bit of a turnaround year last year, but he’s still prone to some struggles from time to time, and although the weather isn’t perfect for hitting, this ballpark is amazing for hitters. Love the upside of a Hamilton, Peraza, Votto, Duvall stack, and it’s pretty affordable across most sites.

Cash Game Plays

SP — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Jon Gray

C — Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin, Sandy Leon, Rene Rivera (DK punt)

1B — Joey Votto, Mitch Moreland

2B — Dustin Pedroia, Cesar Hernandez, Raul Mondesi (DK punt)

3B — Justin Turner, Mike Moustakas

SS — Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson

OF — Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Odubel Herrera, Billy Hamilton, Andrew Toles, Seth Smith