How the CAVS won the 3rd game of the ECF
Game 3 of the CAVS/BOS matchup was played out, lets recall that just two seasons ago the number 1 2011 draft pick (Irwing) was exchanged for the last draft pick (Thomas) between the two teams and now in the 2018 ECF both teams with a major lineup change for both sides we saw them fighting to go to the NBA finals.
I want to start out this write up by first of all looking at a few out of the box bits and pieces. Below we see a full analysis of (Win Probability Added — WPA). In practical terms its just a fancy way of stating that there is a small margin of dominance when performance concerned however that small margin blows up in such critical games as the ECF of the NBA. No doubt that LBJ made an impact. He might not have gone for a triple double or he might not have taken a bunch of more shots than he normally does but he helped distribute the ball well for the CAVS.
As we can see from the CAVS performance the overall assists they had in Game 3 was a major factor in how well they kept BOS at bay and did not allow them to comeback.
Another clear point I feel that needs to be looked at are the four factors (of Dean Oliver):
CAVS by far out rebounded, distributed the ball well and made effective shots when needed. Whereas BOS were only able to get to the line and convert just a marginal number of free throws to be effective. End result. CAVS got the “W”.
When looking further at how LBJ managed to score just enough with 27 points but the real on court impact he had were the 12 assists he had (look back at the above video… count’em all down!) the closest second was K.Love whom had 4 assists in the game.
Looking at BOS and how they potentially can get back on track if at all, they need to isolate plays for their top scoring options (Tatum, Rozier and Brown).
Marcus Smart was the least effective out of the BOS squad and it was clear as day on his face after the game.
Jayson Tatum did the best he possibly could to contribute on offense however, lets not forget that unless you are not LBJ trying to dominate by yourself is pretty hard to accomplish in todays’ NBA style of play.
Here is a look at Tatum’s scoring:
The clues to stop the CAVS lies not in stopping LBJ but just slowing him down enough to demoralize the remaining four players on the court. Consider the fact that JR Smith, Love, Thompson and at times Hill or Clarkson all are heavily effected at the fact that a missed FG by LBJ usually means them having to push back harder on defense and looking at BOS they have no issues in countering with the myriad of offensive strategies available to them.
BOS had a total of 96 possessions in the third game, the above table gives by definition how badly they paced the game for themselves. To me the fact that their defense was off is an understatement.
When looking back across all three games at the defensive positions that BOS managed to prevent the CAVS in during the ECF (all three games). The clues and nuances are there! Defense the way Brad Stevens provides it is key to BOS getting two more wins to advance to the NBA Finals, however we can not rule out the LBJ and his motivation are relentless. I do not think he will stop at anything to get the CAVS to face the WCF Champs (either GSW or HOU) 44 minutes of all defensive clips bundled up into one.
I also just checked the following, our friends at fivethirtyeight.com I highly regards (especially Nate Silver) have pointed out that the remaining games of the series would end up as follows, I’ll let you be the judge of the overall way you’d like to consider it…
Ermay “Mike” Duran
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