On why hardware matters (and static software)

The Beginning

MG Siegler, wrote in 2011 that “the spec no longer matters”. If this is true, it has profound implications for computing, but not in the way you might think.

This major shift was first realized by the PC manufacturers with the introduction of the netbook by Asus. These low cost, small size laptops drastically undercut the prices of laptops while providing much the same performance. This is of course Moore’s law at work, which seems to apply to almost all the components in a computer. However, there is one component that does not seem to trail Moore’s law and thus the basis for MG’s observation.

Software

MG hit upon a simple concept, the computing power that is affordable and pocketable today is more than sufficient to fulfill our current computing needs.

For example, the main functional use of our PCs today is email, web and word processing. These are quite old applications and the performance of a computer from two years ago is much the same as one today.

This is a function of the relative stasis in our application computing needs as well as the transfer of computation to vastly more powerful computers in the cloud. Until the affordances of computers change, it seems that software requirements will stay relatively static on the client side. (Computation in the cloud is a different story)

Hardware

So what are the implications of relatively static software? Smartphones will no longer need to compete for having the fastest processor or graphics. Rather design, size and efficiency will become the determining factor. Instead of expecting the next iPhone to be twice as fast with twice as much memory, Moore’s law will give us phones that are twice as thin with twice the battery life.

Now pause. For the last two decades laptops have stayed the same size and increased in power. Going forward Moore’s law will be used to shrink them into the objects around you. We will start seeing the application of computing power closer and closer to the human body, in our every day objects, watches, earrings, bracelets.

To rephrase MG’s comment to reflect this change it is not that “the spec no longer matters” rather it is that “usability is the spec that matters”.

Same as it always was.