How to Avoid the Hype

My thoughts on Gartner’s new Technology Hype Cycle Report

Every day in Silicon Valley, people try to analyze what technology is hot now and what will be hot tomorrow. Or next month. Or in the next 5 years. When something is proclaimed hot or disruptive, it is immediately mentioned in numerous startup pitches and supported by ambitious investors.

People are often caught in two common traps when they get too excited about the guessing game, even among the best minds in the industry. First, failing with critical thinking — getting too hyped over something potentially great sometimes doesn’t allow to think clearly. And second, forgetting the importance of the execution needed to make those technologies work.

Gartner has done a pretty good job developing the concept of a “Hype Cycle” for the tech market. It allows the tracking of any disruptive technology from the Innovation Trigger through the Peak of Inflated Expectations, then to the Trough of Disillusionment (the point where people understand that this tech trend will not change the world like a magic wand).

Obviously, the illusion-breaking stage is where many tech developments end. But, as Gartner analysts assume, if a technology is a true game-changer and gets enough support from the market (companies, investors, influencers), it might enter the “slope of enlightenment,” and it may even move to the “plateau of productivity.” In other words, give the emerging technology some time and room without the pressure of being called “hot,” and one day it might really change the world. At least, some part of it.

Here is a great example. Back in 2012, when my boss, Dmitry Grishin, was planning the launch of his consumer robotics company and we were discussing the options to do it right, only a few people shared our idea that this was a next big thing. Now almost everyone I meet in the Valley agrees that consumer robotics will change our lives in the next decade or two. It means that he is on the right path, despite the initial market response.

But what if you are developing something in an already overhyped area? How do you make it through the market disappointment phase? Is it actually possible to make your way to productivity? I looked at some examples from tech companies that have had their bumps along the way, and pulled five tips on how to survive through disillusionment.

1. Manage the expectations.

Market feelings are often based on psychology. A moderate teaser instead of a massive promise might end in less hype, and will give you room and time to develop your product. One lesson from Apple financial management: the more conservative a revenue forecast the company gives, the more headlines the company later gets if it beats the forecast.

What to look at?

Going back to Gartner’s recent graph, it shows that Advanced Analytics technologies are entering the “Inflated Expectations” phase. And another report supports this with numbers. Marketers are now spending almost a third of their budgets on analytics, and planning to increase it by 73% over the next three years. Managing the expectations of brands, which are hungry for accurate analytics, could prove effective for developers in the long term.

2. Be transparent about your development phase.

Many Valley newbies make one common mistake: trying to keep their technology under wraps, right up to launch. Maybe they are afraid of their idea being stolen, or maybe they want to ensure the wow factor.

In fact, walking stakeholders through key milestones of the development process brings more good than bad. First, it allows you to receive constructive feedback. And second, it gives you more chances for media exposure by offering multiple stages for press. In some cases, helps to build a loyal community of early adopters.

What to look at?

Self-Driving Cars represent another overhyped technology, according to Gartner. Google did a good job disclosing the development and test stages of its own self-driving car, and it looks like Google cars will be on the streets of Texas soon. Another player to look at is, of course, Tesla. Following Google’s lead, one of the most sexy car and tech companies in the world is currently testing its Autopilot system, and is more than transparent about it.

3. Collaborate.

Creating ground-breaking technology alone is hard, if not impossible. Apart from having a brilliant internal team, even large players take advantage of cross-market collaboration. One example of this is Apple, which is well known for its closed ecosystem of devices and software, yet eventually launched ResearchKit, an open-source platform for empowering medical research.

What to look at?

According to the Gartner graph, the Internet of Things (IoT) is at its peak in the hype cycle now. Things with IoT features might cross the 50 billion mark in 2025, analysts from IDC predict. The collaboration between the telecommunications industry, current device manufacturers, innovative startups, and other players might lead to the expansion of the IoT concept into smart cities, smart retail and transit, and further, into smart industrial production.

4. Start with one area of focus.

It’s quite tempting to claim that your technology will change the whole world, from kindergartens to rocket science. But it proves to be more effective to demonstrate the capabilities of tech within one potentially winning area, and then think about other scenarios. In a world crowded with information, your message and technology must be bold and clear from the very beginning. Then only if you’re successful can you think about rebranding as Alphabet.

What to look at?

Virtual reality is one area entering a “Slope of Enlightenment.” Up until recently, virtual reality was mostly a game-oriented technology. Using virtual reality in a narrow, but demanding and fast-growing segment, allowed developers to gain enough skills and expertise to expand. Now Microsoft is creating Hololens to use in everyday life, and Facebook is spending billions on bringing Oculus into communications.

5. Make claims only if you can deliver.

You should make sure you can deliver on your promises, preferably a full-working prototype and preferably within a few months. Don’t make the same mistakes as Google Glass creators. Silicon Valley is not that big and is very transparent, so your potential partners will discover quite quickly that you are unable to deliver. In other words, be careful when proclaiming any timeframe, scope or planned features, but celebrate even small accomplishments — you deserve it!

What to look at?

Speech-to-Speech Translation is one of the most highly anticipated technologies in the world, as it potentially might transform everyday communication for billions of people. But, according to Gartner, it is slowly entering the “Slope of Disillusionment.” Almost none of the proposed technologies managed to provide a decent mass market solution. Microsoft stands out here, as it actually delivered Skype Translator. It has limited language support and is still testing its scope, but still, it is a working version.

To sum it up, the hype over innovative technologies is at the center of Silicon Valley. It drives developers to compete, to deliver, to surprise, and we are always hungry for more. But sometimes we really need to step back and give creators the room to create. The results might be more fascinating than the boldest dreams.

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