The Five Hidden Data Points That May Decide the Midterms
By Bhargav Patel and Kris Qiu
Has there ever been a more closely watched midterm election? As two twenty-something American immigrants who have worked in a bipartisan fashion on 250 campaigns across the country, we still don’t have the definitive answer as to just why emotions are running so high this time around. Nor can we — or, for that matter, anyone else — predict what might happen on November 6. But as creators of an ad tech and data analysis platform built for politics, we look at big data all day long, and have noticed five things that aren’t getting quite the attention they deserve and that might serve as useful indicators for anyone interested in figuring out which way the political winds are blowing.
Black and Blue: In 2010, 41.6 percent of African-Americans voted in the midterm elections; in 2014, that number dipped to 36.4 percent, despite the first African-American president. It is hardly news that this important demographic group traditionally votes Democratic, it is rather the extent to which they are getting out to vote. According to our data, the numbers are slated to spike this year, going as far high as 43 — or maybe even 45 — percent. If you’re wondering how these voters might impact the elections, consider the following: An analysis of six battleground states suggested that a staggering majority of new black voters registered as Democrats, and nearly all African Americans who switched party affiliation in the last twelve months went from Republican to Democrat. These numbers may matter in swing districts like Georgia’s Seventh, where 21 percent of the population are African-Americans.
Not All Women: In the aftermath of the Kavanaugh hearing, many political pundits argued that 2018 is going to be the Year of the Woman, with women overwhelmingly supporting Democratic candidates. This, our data shows, isn’t true for all women: In borderline contests in states where the population is overwhelmingly white, Democratic campaigns seem to fizzle, largely because white women are switching parties and turning increasingly red, “standing by their man” as working class whites see Republicans as looking out for them. The attribute to pay close attention to in post-midterm analysis is the level of education of this group of Republican women. College educated women are moving away from the GOP, while non-college are increasingly red.,
Getting Out to Vote: Last month, New York magazine made waves nationally when it published the accounts of young Americans who had decided not to vote, citing the overall dispiriting state of American politics as the main factor driving them away from the ballot. In sharp contrast, our data shows that white, middle-aged men, a group leaning overwhelmingly Republican, is also the group most likely to show up at the booth and vote.
The Heartland Goes Blue: While we’ve grown accustomed to seeing an electoral map that paints the middle of the country in deep, bright red, polling in several states suggests that this might be changing — in part with farmers concerned about tariffs. In Iowa, for example, Democrats have outpaced Republicans in party-switching, as well as among new registrants, across the ethnic spectrum but particularly among white voters. Democrats are likely to take the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts, and, perhaps, the 4th as well, currently represented by the controversial Rep. Steve King.
Climate Change Heats Up the Ballot: You may think that the most divisive issue separating Republicans and Democrats is something like the economy, gun violence, or health care. It’s not: Our data shows that climate change currently serves as the most polarizing subject red and blue voters vehemently disagree on. For example in Texas, nearly 70 percent of Democrats believe it is real, while ⅓ of Republicans statewide are confident climate change doesn’t exist. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this heated disagreement will drive voters to the ballot, but it is, at the very least, indicative of just how heated our political climate has become: When the one issue on which compromise is least likely to occur is the one issue voters cite as the one about which they’re the most passionate, you know you’re in for a rocky midterm election.
While these insights provide both sides with reasons to be optimistic, they do, in general, point in the direction of the Democrats. We may not see a big, blue wave, but a trickle is highly likely.
And with so many races so close, we can make one more prediction: Expect Getting Out the Vote technologies to grow more innovative and competitive as well. In Texas, for example, a class action suit was filed against Senate hopeful Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for sending automated text messages in bulk. The campaign defended itself, saying that the messages were sent through so-called “clickbanks,” which employ human typists and are therefore not entirely automated and do not violate FCC regulations.
But the case called attention on what is likely to be an increasing reality of every political campaign, the use of AI to micro-target specific groups of voters and develop political platforms and policies optimally tailored to the local community. Politicians are still going to have to do what politicians do best — connect with their voters, in person when possible — but these new tools will give them a better grasp on what these voters truly care about. Which, in a contentious political moment like ours, is a blessing.
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Bhargav Patel and Kris Qiu are the co-founders of IQM.
