Americans are Expecting Inflation to Decline from Current Levels

Here’s How I Know That and Why It’s Important

Inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. As Milton Friedman declared, this is a monetary phenomenon. There are reasons why this is bad, such as the wage-price spiral and the observation that inflation is autoregressively heteroskedastic (meaning that changes in inflation lead to increased uncertainty about future inflation), but current monetary policy accepts that “a little inflation” is considerably better for an economy than…




This is a “narrative portfolio.” Data science, done for the pleasure of finding things out. There is much more content like this in my book, Adventures in Financial Data Science, available on amazon at and directly at

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Graham Giller

Graham Giller

Predicting important variables about companies and the economy, I turn data into information. CEO of Giller Investments.

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