Climate Change Action: Past, Present, and Future

All you need to know about the state of the climate right now

Stock Photo Taken From Dreamstime.com

The Earth is dying, and it is dying fast. As I type this from India, on an unexpectedly sultry June evening with sweat trickling down the side of my face, this statement has never felt truer.

Anyone who reads the papers or watches the news, knows that the Earth is warming. Global temperatures have been on the rise; the Earth is already 1.1°C warmer than it was during pre-industrial times and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report has warned that a 1.5°C warming of the earth is likely to happen between 2030–2050 and a 2°C rise in temperature is expected by 2100.

But what is the significance of these temperatures? How is a seemingly insignificant global temperature rise of a mere 1.5 or 2 degrees celsius purported to lead to the end of the planet as we know it? While it may not appear to be a drastic change, its impacts could be severe.

Based on a research published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a rise in global average temperature by 1.5°C is likely to cause the low lying islands, represented by the Alliance of Small Island States(AOSIS), to submerge. While a 1.5°C temperature rise is expected to raise sea levels by 48cm, a 2°C rise will raise it by 56cm. The impact of rising sea levels can already be seen on coastal cities like Mumbai, where unprecedented flooding is destroying lives.

In Jakarta, which has been described as the world’s most rapidly sinking city, plans for mass relocation of the citizens and the capital are in process. It is estimated that one-third of the city could be submerged by 2050, and among other reasons, climate change is expected to raise the risk of sinking by more than double. As per a study by Climate Central, more than 9 cities from all over the world including Kolkata(India), Basra(Iran)and Amsterdam(Netherlands) might be under water as early as 2030. These are merely a handful of the catastrophic events waiting to occur in the foreseeable future.

The Earth has gone through several cycles of cooling( Ice Age) and subsequent heating (Interglacial period) in the past, with temperature rises of as much as 7°C. Even now it is in the interglacial period (since the past 10,000 years) and hence a temperature rise should not be considered atypical. So one may wonder, why is the world panicking? What is different this time?

The difference, this interglacial, lies in the rate at which this heating is taking place. The global average temperature is rising 8 times faster than it ever has, and the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are the highest they have been in the past 800,000 years. These numbers are way beyond what is considered normal for an interglacial period, and is a cause for concern.

CO2 concentration vs Year Graph taken from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, 2009

We have now established that our planet is in trouble. So the next logical question should be: Are we doing anything about it? If so, are we doing enough? Or are we a day late and a dollar short on this one? To answer this effectively, perhaps a chronological summary of our greatest efforts and their impact would be the best way to proceed.

• In 1945, the United Nations(UN) was founded after the Second World War. It was a group of 51 countries committed to maintaining international peace and security, while promoting social progress, better living standards and human rights.
• In 1968, Sweden sent a proposal wherein it asked for the UN to hold an intergovernmental conference on environmental problems and identify those that required international cooperation to solve. As a result of this, The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm in 1972. Also known as the First Earth Summit, here the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was setup as the leading Global Authority on environmental issues.
• In 1983, the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) was established in Brundtland and in 1987 they submitted their report to the UN based on which United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) was created.

UNCED held its first conference popularly called the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. Its theme was “Environment and Stainable Development”, and it had 5 major outcomes:

1. Agenda 21: A non-binding action plan of the United Nations with regard to sustainable development.
2. Rio Declaration on Environment and Development: It had the goals of raising cooperation levels among States, key sectors of societies and people and Working towards international agreements which respect the interests of all and protect the integrity of the global environmental and developmental system.
3. Statement of Forest Principles: A non-binding document that makes several recommendations for conservation and sustainable development forestry.
4. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): An international environmental treaty to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system”, in part by stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
5. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): A multilateral treaty aiming to conserve biological diversity; sustainable use of its components; and ensuring fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources.

An outcome of the above, the UNFCCC divided countries based on their development levels into the following groups:

• Annex I Parties: It consisted of the OECD Industrialised countries plus the Economies in Transition, which included the Russian Federation, the Baltic States, and several Central and Eastern European States.
• Annex II Parties: It consisted of the OECD country members only. They were required to provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake emissions reduction activities under the Convention and to help them adapt to adverse effects of climate change.
• Non-Annex I Parties: It consisted of Parties that were mostly developing countries. It included countries being recognised as especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, such as countries with low-lying coastal areas and those prone to desertification and drought.
• Least Developed Countries (LDC): These parties were given special consideration under the Convention on account of their limited capacity to respond to climate change and adapt to its adverse effects.

The Conference of Parties (COP) was to be the decision-making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the UNFCCC Since 1995, it has been meeting annually and bringing together the 197 nations and territories — called Parties — that have signed on to the Framework Convention.

While each meet has its own significance, the key COPS include:

1. COP3 (1997): Held in Kyoto(Japan), at this historical conference the developed countries agreed to specific targets for cutting their emissions of greenhouse gases. Additionally, the “Kyoto Protocol” was adopted and a general framework was defined for it, with specifics to be detailed over the next few years.
2. COP7 (2001): Held in Marrakesh(Morocco), here the Kyoto Protocol was formally ratified. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) would be the formal decision making body for the same.
3. COP11/CMP1 (2005): Held in Montreal(Canada), here the Kyoto Protocol came into force and the first commitment period was selected as 2008–2012.
4. COP15/CMP5(2009): Held in Copenhagen(Denmark), here it was decided to set the long term goal of limiting global average temperature rise at 2°C and to consider limiting it to 1.5°C for the benefit of vulnerable countries. Further, the developed countries promised funds worth $100 billion by 2020, but no legally binding commitment was made for the same.
5. COP18/CMP8(2012): Held in Doha(Qatar), here the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period (2013–2020) was finalised.
6. COP21/CMP11(2015): Held in Paris(France), this was the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate change agreement. It targeted keeping the global temperature rise limited to 1.5°C by the end of the decade. Countries were to have differentiated responsibilities and also have Nationally Determined Targets. The CMAs were to be the meetings of the Parties of the “Paris Agreement”.

The latest edition based on the Paris Agreement (COP26/CMP16/CMA3) was held in 2021 in Glasgow(Scotland) over two weeks. The goals of the meet were:

• To review the implementation of the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, respectively.
• To secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5°C degrees within reach by accelerating the phase-out of coal, curtailing deforestation, speeding up the switch to electric vehicles and encouraging investment in renewables.
• To adapt in order to protect communities and natural habitats.
• To mobilise at least $100 billion in climate finance per year.
• To work together towards finalising the Paris Rulebook and to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis.

The COP26 however, is being touted as a missed shot by many since the countries that are primarily responsible for the worsening climate crisis failed to step up. In addition to not formally committing to keeping temperatures below 1.5°C, the Most Developed countries have also not made good on their promise of funding the Lesser Developed Countries with $100 Billion per year for mitigating climate change.

In fact, the most welcome initiatives at the summit this year were put forward by developing countries such as India which set a net zero target for 2070 and pledged to get to 50% renewable energy by 2030. In another positive step, some new countries joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), which is a group committed to ending the production of oil and gas.

But these initiatives are not enough. An analysis of the latest IPCC reports have made it clear that if we want to save the earth, we must take drastic measures at the earliest. This includes cutting down greenhouse gas emissions to almost zero, and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels with immediate effect.

Low lying islands, coastal cities and equatorial countries will be the first to feel the heat (literally), and all the countries must come together and do their bit towards alleviating global warming. Developed and wealthy countries can help by providing financial and technological assistance to the Lesser Developed Countries, while the Developing countries must do their best to adopt sustainable green technology and use it to further their development goals in an eco-friendly way.

A well formulated and executed plan can make all the difference, and history is proof of it. The hole in the Ozone layer because of human emitted chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was discovered in 1985. Realising the gravity of the situation, nearly 200 countries quickly mobilised into action and signed the Montreal Protocol in 1987, whereby the production and consumption of CFCs was phased out in a time bound, efficient way. By mid 1990s the ozone levels had begun rising and by early 2000s the layer had begun its recovery. The Montreal Protocol is perhaps the most successful united effort in the field of environment in history, and its success lay in the unity and efforts of all the countries.

We are currently in a phase where we do not have the luxury of time to shift the blame of our environment’s mismanagement onto faulty policies or countries. This is not the time to fight or debate over who contributes and sacrifices how much. Superficial efforts coupled with a lack of accountability have led us to this stage today, where we cannot even be certain whether our children will have a planet to live on.

But we do not need to rely solely on our Governments to take initiatives- each of us, adults and children alike, can bring about a significant change in the status of the environment if they make it a habit to practice ecologically sound activities and become more conscientious. Simple measures such as planting a tree, or choosing to taking the bus over driving a car can go a long way if 7 billion people do it. It cannot be stressed enough, that our world needs action, and it needs it now.

REFERENCES:

1. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/earth-just-hit-a-terrifying-milestone-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-800-000-years#:~:text=For%20the%20800%2C000%20years%20we,number%20risen%20above%20300%20ppm.
2. https://unfccc.int/
3. Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., Gillett, N. P., Luo, Y., Orsini, J. A., Nicholls, N., et al. (2007). Chapter 9: Understanding and attributing climate change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B. , Tignor, M., and Miller, H.L. (eds.)] Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
4. Steele, L. P., Krummel, P. B., & Langenfelds, R. L. (2007). Atmospheric CO2 concentrations from sites in the CSIRO Atmospheric Research GASLAB air sampling network (August 2007 version). In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
5. https://www.un.org/