How to Write a Scenario: Introduction to Scenario Planning

In my line of work — international and domestic development, emergency and disaster response — it pays to know the future. Want to know the future? Learn how to write scenarios.

About seven years ago, a man brought a proposal to me. He knew that a particular population in a warzone was likely to be displaced soon. That means someone would attack them and force them to move. There was a likelihood that they would run in one of two directions. There was a strong likelihood they wouldn’t have much and would need assistance.

We couldn’t stop the attack but we could try and be ready to help when it likely happened. So, he pre-positioned food along the routes. Eventually, the thing happened, the people fled, and his organization was able to feed them.

That is scenario planning.

Think about all the Things That Could Have Been Avoided

If you ever want some obvious examples of all those times when the world or an agency could have scenario planned much better, just read a history book. Any history book will do.

Take the 2003 Iraq War. One of the first things the US did was disband the Iraqi Army. So we left a bunch of trained, armed people without the primary mechanism of feeding their families. I know you can say hindsight is 20/20.

But, if you wrote the scenario beforehand, that you go into a country, set yourself up as a provisional government, and then disband the military, leaving those people without jobs or recourse — what do you think would happen?

Take a hurricane, any hurricane will do. Hurricane Maria. It was extremely devastating for the island of Puerto Rico. There was limited water and power for months. If you examined the state of the water lines and power grid on the island prior and then put the pressure of a Cat 4 hurricane on them — you could predict the result.

This is not to judge the world or say, oh I’m so much smarter I would have caught that. Even if those scenarios were planned there were political or economic reasons that the fixes were not implemented.

Yet one can’t help to wonder how much we don’t plan scenarios simply because we are afraid of what we are going to get.

How to Write Scenarios: Where to Start

I’m currently on a job, far outside of my home country, in an extremely complex environment, in a language and culture that are not my own. Part of the job — is scenario planning. Luckily, I don’t have to do this in a vacuum. I have access to tons of smart people that live here. I just have to combine and synthesize.

Where to start? Well first, helps to know what you’re writing scenarios for. What do you want to get out of it? In my case, it is for an organization that wants plans for what to do when shit hits the fan.

So, I start with a risk assessment.

Out of that risk assessment, I pull the biggest risks that could significantly change the environment. Say, a political upheaval that impacts our legality to work in the country. Or an armed conflict in an area where we work. Or an earthquake that impairs our headquarters in that country.

Likewise, you could do the exercise with just about anything. You could scenario plan for college or for life. Your starting point is just different. Instead of a risk assessment, you could start with potential goals. If you’re to be a doctor, your life looks like this. If a video game designer, it’s this. If a scuba diving pizza delivery man, then this.

How to Write Scenarios: Imagine Forward

So, take the earthquake example from above. Earthquakes could affect the surrounding environment in an infinite number of ways. It depends on where the epicenter is, the strength of the earthquake, etc., etc.

A quick comparison of the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2021 Haiti earthquake can show what small shifts in something like the epicenter can have in differences of impact. I’m talking about the geographic location of those impacted, etc.

Then you have the infinite variables that emerge from that specific point in time. In the case of the earthquakes — what does the media report, what do the government agencies in the country do, what do international actors do, etc., etc. And what all those things do, depends on who’s in charge and the political climate at the time. All of those things have an impact on the response on the ground. Which in turn has an impact on an organization responding to that earthquake.

If you really want to scenario plan for something — you have to come up with all these major factors. What will all those actors do? What will that situation likely look like?

Inside that situation and in this case, inside that chaos, you can place yourself. First, you imagine forward the situation and what it is likely to look like. This can be based on historical data, etc.

Then, ask yourself what do you want to do? If I’m an organization that responds to disasters, I can imagine forward. I want to achieve certain things in terms of what we deem as an effective response. There will be all these external pressures that we’ve identified. But in spite of those pressures, I know what I want to achieve.

Imagine forward.

How to Write Scenarios: Reason Backwards

So, back to my get out of dodge, evacuation scenario above. First, how did we get to that situation? There were certain things in the environment that pushed us towards the need to evacuate. For the place we are examining, it was, most likely, armed groups. However, as I reason backward, I can see triggers — changes in the conflict dynamics, actions taken by the military, etc. that would likely spur action by those groups.

Then I can see specific actions those groups took before their actions [an attack]. In this case, this could be specific roads they took, places they likely looted prior, etc.

We remembered to imagine forward our own organization’s end state in this scenario. Our end state looks like risk analyzed, staff evacuated or moved, emergency programs prioritized, and risk lowered for remaining staff.

Now within this context, I can reason backward our likely response to their actions. If we need to evacuate from x location, I can say these are the more probable courses of action we need to take. If we need to do programs, we’ve identified what can possibly be done in the environment based on how things play out. We’ve built the context in the scenario, so now we find our way to navigate through it.

How to Write Scenarios: Key Points

Know your context. Know what you’re trying to solve for. Imagine forward. Reason backward. There are a lot more complex ways to scenario plan out there but I’m a great believer in keeping it simple.

There are some other key points that are important to point out when scenario planning.

• I can’t emphasize enough, know what you’re trying to solve for. A scenario plan is a predictive future of what’s going to happen around you. Still, you have goals and agency within that scenario. Understanding what your goals would be in this scenario will help you focus on the most relevant things to you and your organization within the scenario.
• Don’t be afraid of complexity. One of the big things in the future will be scenario planning for climate change. Climate change is complicated. A massive flood happens in place x. That flood cuts off a predominant supply of mineral y. That leads to more poverty in place x and supply shortages in place z. Those supply shortages cause place z to do something. And so on. Working through all the nuances is important, even if some of those nuances are ultimately irrelevant to your situation. Working through them will help you consider all facets of the scenario.
• Be inclusive when developing scenarios. Talk to the people that know the context. Learn how to ask questions to get past their biases and probe their knowledge of specifics. It’s possible to form predictive models with the glut of information out there today, but I would argue, nothing beats talking to people.

Conclusion

So, this has been a primer in writing scenarios. Personally, I would argue that it is a very important skill to learn, particularly as the world becomes more complex. From the current situation in Ukraine to climate change, to covid there is a lot to scenario plan for.

Could have more secondary effects from the pandemic based on the government’s likely reactions be predicted? Quite possibly. And that may have been able to inform policy.

Hindsight is 20/20 but if we don’t try and look forward to the future, then we’re just walking through the forest blind.

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