Likelihood vs. Impact
Overview
If you find yourself in a situation where you are working with a newly-formed team, or with a team (whether new or not) that is about to work on a feature set that is relatively unfamiliar, Likelihood vs Impact is a technique that you might find helpful.
Here are two examples of settings where you could employ this technique:
- During visioning or similar planning activities
- As a “future-spective” technique (a forward-leaning conversation, in a retrospective context)
How to Facilitate
Consider framing the conversation something like this:
As we prepare to start working on <summary of feature set or problem space>, let’s talk about some things that could potentially happen (however unlikely they might be) and how any those things could impact our ability to deliver.
To start the activity, ask the team members to either silently write down or verbally express examples of things that could potentially occur that could could slow or stop progress in a particular area in which the team needs to deliver. Set a specific timebox for this part of the conversation, ideally no more than five to ten minutes.
Examples of areas that could help generate ideas for this conversation include:
- Dependencies (e.g., on internal teams, vendors, or funding)
- Technical issues (e.g., End of Life of a particular platform or software product, challenges associated with software licensing)
- Organizational dynamics (e.g., a potential restructuring or shake-up in a department or organization, the departure of a key individual)
- Compliance concerns (e.g., the need to pass a financial or security audit)
Once you have an initial list of items, ask the team to score each one in terms of Likelihood and Impact, where 1 is the lowest and 5 is the highest. When you are done, each item will have an “L score” (relative Likelihood of it occurring) and an “I score” (relative impact if it occurs). For example, you could end up with items scored such as this:
- L1, I1. Low Likelihood, Low Impact
- L1, I5. Low Likelihood, High Impact
Managing Outcomes
Once you’ve assigned your scores, you will have many options in terms of what to do with this data. For instance, you could:
- Arrange the items out in a matrix, with the Likelihood on one axis, and the Impact on the other axis
- Assign Action Items or next steps (as you would in a retrospective context, for instance)
Reference
I consulted this page before designing the activity
