2020: Three Trends for the New Decade
The inexorable march of “do more, faster, with less“ will continue. And that’s OK
As we enter a new decade, technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, the internet of things and voice computing are dominating the headlines. Yet there are other, less-talked-about trends that will, ultimately, determine how we use those technologies and how they will affect our lives. Here are three of them:
1. The two-track organization
For years, legacy organizations have struggled to institutionalize their innovation efforts. Does innovation live outside the core business? Within the business units? Alongside them? Is it a full-time gig for employees or tacked on to their regular duties?
A consensus is finally emerging.
It goes by many names. Two-track, dual operating system, dual-engine, ambidextrous and others. But they all mean the same thing: Innovation works best when it lives outside the core business, operating parallel to it and staffed with dedicated, specialized talent.
The rationale is straightforward: Searching for new business models is very different from executing an existing business model. It requires a different set of skills, new processes and incentives to succeed.
This emerging best practice isn’t meant to replace or compete with existing business functions, but to complement them. As David Kidder, CEO of consulting firm Bionic put it, “Together, these dual operating systems give you the power to discover and validate new ideas at the speed and cost of startups, then launch the validated ideas into new businesses at the scale of enterprises.”
This new innovation track will not only require new approaches, but a new brand of leadership, as well.
2. Leading by experimentation
It turns out success requires a lot of failure — and leaders who are not only comfortable with this failure, but know how to make the most of it. Alexander Osterwalder, in HBR.org last November, provided us with a great real-world example of the math involved.
In his piece, he described German appliance maker Bosch’s Accelerator Program, which provides a platform for internal innovation teams to validate new business ideas. Bosch leaders and innovation managers select cohorts of 25–30 teams from around the world that work together for 6–12 months. Teams receive initial funding of approximately €120,000 and get three months to test whether their business ideas can scale. Depending on the results, teams can obtain additional funding of €300,000 or more.
Since 2017, Bosch has invested in more than 169 teams. Of these teams, 70% stopped their projects after just the first investment, and 72% of the remaining teams stopped after the second investment. Through this process, Bosch discovered just 14 teams that successfully took their projects to scale with follow-on funding.
Experimental leaders are, in many ways, the antithesis of traditional business leaders — and better suited to our turbulent times. They’re comfortable with uncertainty, they empower and support their teams above all, and they tend to lead with questions rather than answers.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is a prominent example of an experimental leader. Nadella pivoted Microsoft from what he called a “know-it-all” culture to a “learn-it-all” culture and famously reinvigorated a company that had been treading water for 10 years.
Now, with the rise of today’s no-code tools and platforms, it has never been easier to lead through experimentation.
3. No-code development
Imagine conceiving a new generation of digital products and businesses without writing a single line of code. Increasingly, we can, thanks to the no-code and low-code movements: a drag-and-drop, visual approach to software development that allows non-technologists to quickly create functioning software experiences of all kinds and test them in the marketplace.
The movement has been quietly gaining momentum for years, but in the past 12 months, it has exploded in visibility and capability. Today, even a liberal-arts graduate can create an e-commerce marketplace, a blogging website, native mobile apps, voice bots and more.
Challenges and opportunities that were previously addressable only by those with technical know-how or deep enough pockets can now be addressed by any entrepreneur with a good idea. Innovation and design teams that relied on partial prototypes to test new ideas can deploy functioning software instead and collect more reliable feedback, while saving their valuable engineering resources for other needs.
“I believe that the no-code and low-code movements are possibly the single biggest paradigm shifts in independent entrepreneurship that we have seen in a decade.” — Colin Winhall, makermag
We might add corporate innovation to that quote, as well. It’s going to be an interesting decade.
