Demystifying Story Point Estimation Using the Cynefin Framework

A simple system to onboard first timers

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Understanding story point estimation can be a challenging task for developers, especially those who are new to agile methodologies. Story points are a way to estimate the effort required to complete a user story, considering complexity, risk, and uncertainty.

I do not use story points with all teams. It is common practice in Scrum, but while it is a very useful tool in certain situations, it can also be a waste of time in others. In those cases, it may feel like story points are just needed to keep track of velocity and make management happy.

Either way, it can be a difficult concept to grasp. To make it clearer, I use the Cynefin framework, a sense-making model that helps break down and categorize complexities in different domains. Here’s how I explain story point estimation using this framework.

Introduction to the Cynefin Framework

The Cynefin framework, developed by Dave Snowden, divides situations into five domains, the five Cs:

1. Clear: Known and predictable problems with clear cause-and-effect relationships.

2. Complicated: Problems that require expert analysis but have a clear relationship between cause and effect.