OpenAtom 1: What If Oppenheimer Built AI?
Let’s indulge in a bit of historical fiction.
Imagine for a moment it is the late 1920s. Physicists are leaving Newtonian physics behind and delving deep within the realm of the unimaginably small. Einstein has reshaped physicists’ thinking about the very nature of energy, matter and time. Quantum mechanics is on the horizon and physicists are pushing boldly into new frontiers of mathematics and its implications. Names no one has ever heard of will soon be seared into human history.
Against this backdrop, a brilliant, eccentric entrepreneur (perhaps Howard Hughes) becomes enamored with the potential of these breakthroughs. He forms a non-profit company called “OpenAtom” with the goal of unlocking the potential of atomic theory to the greater benefit of mankind. Led by an irascible young man named Robert Oppenheimer, OpenAtom attracts some of the brightest minds of its age and sets to work pushing the frontiers of atomic science and application. Einstein, rather than drafting his famous letter to Roosevelt, instead goes to work for another atomic start-up. These companies do their work well out of the mainstream consciousness and in relative secrecy even among the tight world of physicists.
In 1935, OpenAtom reveals to the world a small but functional nuclear power plant. It is unreliable and breathtakingly expensive … but the potential is obvious to everyone. As a mere footnote, they reveal that they have changed OpenAtom’s organizational design and mission to include a for-profit component. Hughes, meanwhile, is distracted with his many other ventures and now considers OpenAtom a potential competitor. He has moved on and is no longer actively involved with his brainchild.
Fearing they appear unprepared for the atomic opportunity, the era’s major industrial powers (perhaps IBM, AT&T, Ford, Boeing and GM) quickly announce that they too have been zipping particles around in their laboratories and deliver cumbersome demonstrations of their own atomic prototypes. A relatively small company (perhaps Hewlett-Packard) has been building centrifuges. They unveil a centrifuge that is 1000x more efficient and declare they are nearly ready with a 10,000x more efficient centrifuge … far more powerful than anything previously imagined. (Within 18 months HP will become one of the five most valuable companies in the world and the major industrial powers will all establish their own centrifuge R&D efforts.)
It becomes obvious that hundreds-of-millions of dollars has been invested in atom smashing with essentially zero public visibility. (The sum is larger than the British Navy’s ship building budget.)
The major players begin a frenzy of cross-investment and surge billions (1930’s billions, this is A LOT of money) into atomic development. Legions of entrepreneurs stop tinkering with cars and begin playing with atoms. The industrial giants and investors create easy accessibility to atom smashing labs and the entrepreneurs begin passing all sorts of designs for atomic applications amongst themselves. They make their plans globally available for free and a few industrial giants even make their atomic designs publicly available to seize investment and mindshare.
Oppenheimer becomes a bit of a celebrity. He gives interviews and meets with senior government and business leaders, saying lots of interesting and provocative things along the way.
Suddenly, and with no public explanation, Oppenheimer is fired by the Board of OpenAtom. It shocks not just the nuclear community but the country at large. What happened? Why is the board being secretive? Rumors circulate that someone within the company made the board aware of dangerous innovations underway. Perhaps a weapon system. Or an unstable power design. There is a revolt among the OpenAtom staff at Oppenheimer’s firing and their largest corporate financial sponsor steps in. Over the course of a furious weekend, Oppenheimer is once again made the CEO of OpenAtom. The world is never told what transpired in his firing or re-appointment. Howard Hughes gives an interview in which he speculates something significant has happened that scared the board into action. Hughes quickly then establishes his own, stand-alone nuclear company as a competitor to OpenAtom.
It dawns on the public and government officials that atomic capabilities are of international and domestic importance. Coal miners, farmers, and power plant operators worry for their jobs. Rural communities are concerned about fair access to power. The military wrings its hands about nuclear weaponization and the lack of control or even visibility into who might be developing fearsome capabilities. No one has even considered how to control or manage an accidental release of radiation. The best physicists question whether they might accidentally ignite the atmosphere and kill everything on the planet. Leading scientists — even as they are racing forward — are raising their hands to question where all of this is heading.
Of course, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan are also experimenting with this technology. America’s allies, embroiled with domestic challenges and regional conflicts, are largely absent from the conversation.
It is 1940 and the race is on between a few advanced, industrialized nations.
So, in these circumstances, what should the country do?
