Macron won the battle. Will Le Pen win the war?
Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen by a landslide, right? 66% to 34% — bigger than most people predicted. By any normal standards, it’s a decisive victory. But these aren’t normal standards. This is a politician who many call a “fascist.”
Let’s look beyond the raw numbers, and see what actually happened.
One in three voters in France chose a person who has been called an extremist (let’s leave aside abstentions and blank votes). One in three chose a person who compared Muslims to the Nazi occupation of France, who stoked fears of French identity being destroyed by foreigners, who used a genuine fear of terrorism for political purposes.
The last time a far-right leader came this close to the presidency was in 2002. Marine’s father, Jean Marie Le Pen, the Holocaust denier who was accused of torture in Algeria, got 18% in the second round.
His daughter expelled him from the party, cleansed the party’s image and got twice as many votes.
And that’s a decisive defeat for the far right?
Support for the far right is growing. And a lot of support is coming from young people (age 18 to 24) in former left-wing strongholds who are joining the National Front.
Why?
Because they feel like mainstream politicians have failed them:
In 2015, Marine Le Pen declared, “Now, the dividing line is not between left and right but globalists and patriots.”
Those she calls “patriots,” I’d refer to as nationalists. But I think she’s right. Parties like hers have helped redefine the political landscape to create space for them to thrive.
By all means, celebrate the victory of the tolerant, open, pro-European anti-fascist today. But keep your eyes open.
This isn’t the end for the far right in Europe. The movement is growing.
As our correspondent Ahmed Shihab-Eldin says, in the long game, Marine Le Pen might just be the real winner:
