After the Dust Settles — Making Sense of the Non-sense
A deeper analysis of the MOAB strike in Afghanistan
Summary
Drawing on very high resolution satellite imagery, along with recent ground photography and reporting, it is now clear that the recent MOAB strike in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan created far less damage and destruction than was initially widely reported. This MOAB strike destroyed a total of 38 buildings and 69 trees within an area extending 150 metres from the centre of the strike location, debunking media reports of the MOAB strike destroying buildings over three kilometres away. David Mansfield and Alcis have been studying this remote, troubled valley in Eastern Afghanistan since 2005. This report follows on from our initial report put out in the immediate aftermath of the strike.
Given the importance of the Mahmand valley in national politics and its location deep within one of the fracture lines in the Afghan state, there is a need to assess the wider social, economic and political ramifications of the MOAB strike and the campaign against the militants in the upper reaches of Achin district. These aspects will be covered in the third report to follow in this series.
Introduction
On 13 April 2017, the US military released a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) on a small settlement and reported tunnel network, at the entrance to the Mahmand Valley, within Achin District, Nangarhar Province, in Eastern Afghanistan, as shown in Figure 1 below. This settlement, despite its size, is not a recognised settlement, and has no official name in either the Afghan National or International settlement databases. The settlement does however feature as an unnamed settlement in Alcis’ settlement database for Afghanistan. The settlement sits 650 metres to the southwest of the centre of the village of Asadkhel, close to the villages of Lansai Ahmad and Tangai and three kilometres from Shadal Bazaar, as shown in Figure 2 below.
Alcis analysis — site damage
Drawing on satellite imagery, recently collected ground photography and video from the strike location as well as geospatial and 3D visualisation tools, subsequent analysis can now provide a deeper understanding of this unique event.
Analysis of the damage to buildings within and beyond the strike location from high resolution pre- and post-strike satellite imagery, shows that the extent of the blast shock wave extended at least as far as 135 metres but less than 450 metres from the centre of the MOAB strike. The accompanying fire ball extended less far, out to 140 metres from the strike location, based on the analysis of cockpit footage of the strike, satellite imagery and ground photography. These distances are considerably less than other reporting, which stated that the MOAB has a blast radius of one mile. The destroyed area amounts to four hectares, approximately the size of seven football fields.
Although it is not possible from high resolution satellite imagery and ground photography to determine an identifiable crater on the ground from the MOAB strike, this imagery shows that the destruction of the 38 buildings and 69 trees that make up this settlement was absolute, as shown in Figure 3 above and Figure 4 below. A 3D representation of the destroyed settlement, along with animated video around the settlement is at Figure 5 below. Damage to caves and tunnels within the strike location has not yet been assessed.
Alcis analysis — wider damage
It was initially unclear how far damage from the MOAB blast extended from the area of impact. Damage to buildings and compounds could be seen in satellite imagery in the nearby villages of Lansai Ahmad, Tangai and Tangah, as well as Shadal Bazaar, three kilometres away. Analysis of multi-dated satellite imagery indicates that the damage within the white circles in Figure 6 below has occurred within the last seven months. However, given the very contained and targeted nature of the destruction visible at these locations, where individual compounds have been destroyed, it is likely that these are not due to the MOAB blast but are a consequence of the ongoing conflict in the area, most likely airstrikes carried out by the US Military.
Media Reporting
In the immediate aftermath of the MOAB strike, media reporting was extensive. Media interest focused on the fact that this was the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used in combat. The expectation was of massive damage to the area of the strike and up to a mile from the strike location, including a 300 metre crater at point of impact. Now that journalists have been allowed close to the site of the MOAB strike, ground photography and film footage of the strike location has started to emerge. As well, recent video taken by the Afghan Local Police taken from the actual strike location has emerged, via the US Military. This reporting has proved helpful in confirming the absence of a 300 metre crater at the strike location.
Some media as well reported that buildings in Shadal Bazaar, over three kilometres away, had been destroyed by the blast, where reporting included ground photographs to support these claims. Based on the analysis of the actual extent of the MOAB blast, as set out above, it is most likely that the reported damage at Shadal Bazaar, as represented in Figure 7 below, is due to the ongoing conflict in the area and not due to the MOAB strike.
Military Reporting
Whilst media interest in the story of the MOAB strike was significant, military commentary on the other hand was and still remains muted, save for a few limited press statements and briefings. The US Military are yet to release a full damage assessment of the MOAB strike.
Casualties
On 15 April, Afghanistan’s defence ministry reported that 94 militants including four major commanders had been killed in the strike, along with zero civilian casualties. Whilst it is understood the assessment of dead militants might be based on detailed military intelligence reporting, the precision around the number of exactly 94 militant deaths seems overly precise, especially given the nature of the ongoing conflict in the area and the relatively confined area of the MOAB blast.
Likewise, the claim of zero civilian casualties seems anomalous. Conflict has been ongoing in this area between Daesh, the Taliban and subsequently the Afghan government security forces dating back to mid-2015. Over this time, local residents in the area of the MOAB strike have been driven from their homes by Daesh. In many cases, Pakistani Orakzai families moved into these vacated settlements. Post-strike satellite imagery and ground photography shows active crops in the fields belonging to the settlement at the centre of the strike. With up to a month until harvest time, it is unlikely these crops would have been left unattended. Indeed, it is likely that some of the farmers tending these fields would have been residing within the buildings of the settlement obliterated by the MOAB strike. It is therefore entirely possible that the count of casualties has included working-age male farmers rather than solely militants, as the Afghan defence ministry has indicated.
The BBC reported that it is hard to know how many were killed by the MOAB strike. Ultimately, the real number of militants and civilians killed is likely to remain unknown.
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