Alexandria Science
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Alexandria Science

Comparisons of Autosomal Genetic Models

Which Model Is Better, a Simpler One or a More Complicated One?

Figure 1. Normalized histogram for one billion values of the simulation’s Poisson distribution, which was calculated by adding a value of 22 to random Poisson values with an average of 33, resulting in an average of 55.
Figure 2. Comparison of results for two autosomal models. Each row corresponds to a simulation of 500K trials of comparison between an individual and a particular relative. The rows alternate by model, first with the original model in which gene segments don’t remain in place, next with the new two homologue model in which gene segments have a fixed position. The lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval (CI) are shown on either side of the average. Within the constraints and assumptions of the particular model, there is 95% confidence that shared DNA between the two relatives would fall within that range. The column ‘0% Shared’ refers to the percentage of trial runs that result in relatives not sharing any DNA. This doesn’t occur for very close relations. For brevity and easier handling of program variables, the terminology ‘parent of 2nd cousin’ is used rather than ‘1st cousin, once removed.’ Inputs are based on the number of generations back from the user, therefore the model input for ‘parent of cousin’ is ‘gen = 3’ (three generations, for great-grandparents), rather than the ‘gen = 2’ (for grandparents) that would be used from the other perspective. Similarly, one could find their expected shared percentage of DNA with a niece by using ‘gen = 2’ and simulating a comparison to an aunt.

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