TRUCKING: The Empty Seat
40 Tons, 65 MPH. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
In September 2016, the Obama administration put its weight behind automated driving — releasing guidelines for the new systems for the first time. Though the federal government, through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, will ultimately bear responsibility for regulating the safety of 80,000 lb autonomous trucks on US highways, many states have already created laws that allow for the testing of self-driving vehicles.
Soon after the government released the guidelines, the Michigan state Senate approved a bill allowing trucks to drive autonomously in “platoons,” where two or more big rigs drive together and synchronize their movements; that bill echoed similar laws passed in California, Florida and Utah that also set regulations for testing truck platoons.
Such legislation lays the groundwork for a future with fewer truckers and marks the first time that automation targets an entire class of blue-collar workers in America.
“We are going to see a wave and an acceleration in automation, and it will affect job markets,” said Jerry Kaplan, a Stanford lecturer and the author of “Humans Need Not Apply” and “Artificial Intelligence: What Everyone Needs to Know,” two books that chronicle the effects of robotics on labor.
“Long-haul truck driving is a great example, where there isn’t much judgment involved and it’s a fairly controlled environment,” Kaplan said.
Change is Inevitable
As factory jobs have migrated across borders and offshore over the last two decades, trucking has grown and pay has risen, even if the compensation remains low considering the long hours and difficult conditions. Truckers make $42,500 per year on average, establishing them firmly in the middle class. Truck driving is one of the last remaining careers that offers middle-class pay to those without a college degree and one of the most common jobs in many states. There are 1.7M truckers in America, and another 1.7M drivers of taxis, buses and delivery vehicles — all of whom are at risk.
Research suggests that artificial intelligence will likely render basic-skill jobs obsolete while creating more roles for the highly educated, further deepening the inequity between middle-aged unskilled laborers and tech-savvy millennials.
“The people whose skills become obsolete are low-wage workers, and to the extent that it’s difficult for them to acquire new skills, it affects inequality,” said James Bessen, a lecturer at the Boston University School of Law who researches the effects of innovation on labor.
OTR Trucking will likely be the first type of driving to be fully automated — meaning the driver’s seat is empty. One reason is that long-haul big rigs spend most of their time on highways, which are the easiest roads to navigate without human intervention…
Unskilled? Controlled Environment?
Ever back a tandem trailer into a bay the width of a pencil on icy pavement in the dark?
Maneuver 80,000 lbs of truck through downtown rush hour traffic on a deadline?
Let’s see some snapshots of a trucker’s controlled environment…requiring little judgment…
Scott Spindola is a 44-year-old truck driver from Covina, California earning up to $70K per year, with overtime, hauling goods from the Port of Long Beach. He has full medical coverage and plans to drive until he retires. But, in a decade or less, his big rig may be autonomous. Whether the job can be done safely without him is debatable.
Spindola says he isn’t convinced that a machine could ever do his job.
“You need a human being to deal with some of the problems we have out on the road,” Spindola said. There are too many delicate maneuvers involved, he maintained, too many tricks and turns and unforeseen circumstances to hand the wheel over to a robot.
Trucking is a $700B industry — a third of which is spent on compensating drivers — so there’s sweet financial incentive for automating trucks.
Automotive giants and ride-share upstarts alike are competing to put autonomous vehicles on the road — replacing drivers. “If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. Indeed, trucks without human hands at the wheel could be on American roads within a decade, say analysts and industry executives.
Change is inevitable, but for safety’s sake, we better hope veteran truckers like Spindola play a role in the operation of the new generation of autonomous freight transport vehicles. And why wouldn’t they? A strong tech education is no substitute for the skill — yes, skill — of an experienced truck driver.
Alkane thanks Natalie Kitroeff, writing for the LA Times, for some of the content of this article.
Alkane Truck Company is currently raising capital on the crowdfunding platform StartEngine. Find out more here: https://www.startengine.com/startup/alkane
