Can Tyler Herro save the Miami Heat in 2023?
The Boy Wonder has been doing his best to right the ship.
The Miami Heat were at .500 in 2022 and they are now at .514 in 2023. A big jump, right? Well, hopefully it’s a sign that indicates a New Year’s resolution to win more. The Heat were 1st in the Eastern Conference and made the respective conference’s finals that concluded with Miami being one Jimmy Butler shot away from another chance at the NBA Finals; and now they’re at a point where they’ve scarcely scraped the .500 mark this campaign. The Heat are on pace to subtract about 13 wins from last year’s total according to Cleaning The Glass, and the statistics have made it glaringly obvious why that’s the case. The Heat have been uncharacteristically inefficient on offense with their lowest points per 100 possessions since Butler joined the roster. This coincides with a 23rd ranked eFG%, while their defense allows one of the highest rates of the same stat. The Heat have been lucky with their starting 5’s health — this has normally not been the case — which provides an even more puzzling explanation for such an extreme downfall.
My natural instinct is to point to Erik Spoelstra’s typically mundane style of play that either consists of Butler isolation plays, or running a meticulous set through Bam Adebayo. Adebayo has not taken the offensive steps expected, and necessary, to continue the team’s style of play, but it is a different story when Tyler Herro graces the court. Although Bam and Jimmy both have a considerably positive effect on the Heat’s ORtg, they both decrease the pace when they hit the floor; Miami’s estimated possessions per game, or pace, decreases when either Bam or Jimmy are in. In contrast, this number jumps up when Herro is on the court. Another interesting stat is that the Heats’ opponents’ pace slightly decreases when he is playing. This could be attributed to the fact that running an offense through Herro can sometimes schematically shock those who are accustomed to Miami 26th ranked pace.
This play utilizes Bam as simply a depot to secure the ball while the entire rest of the play revolves around him. This kind of offensive orbit renders Bam to a sedentary role that requires for the set to build enough of an opportunity for the Heat big-man to capitalize off of for either an assist or spacing that provides him with the environment to create his own shot. If the off-ball movement fails though, the play breaks down quickly and it devolves into a low-percentage Bam isolation shot or a free-for-all for a bucket.
Now look at how fluid and urgent the Heat’s offense is when Herro is given the chance to orchestrate a transition attack, while not overthinking other plays as the primary playmaker on the court. Herro’s ability to pull up from three encourages the defense to have to contemplate whether they want to press and contain Herro, or to preemptively cut off other options for if the play slows down. Instead of predictable going into said play, Herro catches the opposition off guard with spot-up three that now instills the notion that Herro manning the ball himself is of similar importance to preventing other shots, even if they are open. This will make defenses compromise more on what they can, or cannot, shut down and allows the Heat to slow down the pace when Herro sits because the other team is now expecting a faster offense.
The fact that Herro can create his own shots from anywhere on the floor, whether it’s near the logo or next to the basket, is an attribute that he wields that none of Jimmy, Bam or Kyle Lowry share. Although the offense is certainly not objectively worse off when any of these three run the offense, Jimmy is not fundamentally a playmaker and Kyle’s AST% has plummeted this year. More than this though, Bam’s assist rate compared to his usage rate is at a career low, while his points per shot attempt is substantially lower than Herro’s for their respective positions. This is just to say that if the Heat can’t seem to grind their way out of this funk with their sluggish game of hot-potato, why not hand the reins over to Herro with the hope that his spunk can ignite a fire for the new year.
