Get Damian Lillard to South Beach! — Mock Trades

5 potential methods of getting Dame to the Heat.

The One That Tries To Solve Everybody’s Problems

Damian Lillard wants out, James Harden wants out, Furkan Korkmaz has been wanting out for years and Tyler Herro has accepted that he’s out. Many Portland fans initial reaction will be to write off Harden because he has become viewed as a heliocentric tumor that eats up all the healthy aspects of a young core (i.e. Tyrese Maxey having to bounce between 6th Man and a starter), but that’s exactly why he’s perfect. Harden’s contract has leverage on a team like the 76ers where blowing it up after years of “The Process” is not an option; Philly wants to win now and while Harden will retrieve no King’s Ransom, it’s better than the potential alternative of him putting his back on. On the other hand, trading away Lillard for Harden is a win-win situation for Portland. Harden’s offensive facilitation (99th percentile for Playmaking Talent according to BBall Index) serves as an excellent framework for Scoot Henderson to model his game after, as he will likely supersede the veteran within that role. That being said there are two possible outcomes of Harden relocating to Portland: 1. Harden becomes an effective mentor to Portland’s deep backcourt depth, loves Oregon and wants to stay on a cheaper deal; 2. Harden becomes instantly disgruntled and either sits or mentally checks out. The latter result seems more likely at this point, but that does not matter for Portland who do not have postseason expectations and would gladly eat Harden’s contract for a year in order to splurge in the following free agency class. Tyler Herro going to Philly would form a lethal shot-creating duo with Maxey, and in the circumstance that a playmaking starting-five is prioritized, Herro can come off the bench and De’Anthony Melton can adopt playmaking duties. Duncan Robinson would also give Philly their first true 3-point specialist since J.J. Reddick.

The One That Builds A Foundation

This is really a trade for if the Blazers care more about draft capital for future transactions and picks than rebuilding the team immediately. Spencer Dinwiddie is a formidable veteran guard on an expiring contract, so not only could he provide age and experience to a youthful roster, but he could genuinely be a long-term depth piece. Dinwiddie is 30 years old and has been implemented in various roles, whether it was as an offensive centerpiece in ‘19-’20 with the Nets, where his usage rate ranked in the 97th percentile, to his pass-first mentality with the Nets this prior season. Dinwiddie keeps the ball safe (87th percentile for TOV% with Brooklyn in ‘22-’23) and can instill stability into an immature squad that is sure to be eager to get the gears turning immediately. Portland does not want what Houston had last year with their inexperienced core, and Dinwiddie could help prevent that kind of outcome. More than Dinwiddie though, Portland will receive a low-maintenance off-ball shooter in Duncan Robinson, who should give Scoot Henderson easy opportunities for kick-outs. Then there’s the enigma of whatever Nikola Jovic will become, which should be at least intriguing based on his Summer League performances this year. The Nets shouldn’t be too heartbroken, considering they’re getting a promising long-term contract in Tyler Herro for Dinwiddie’s that may not even have been extended.

The One That Dumps Contracts

San Antonio has no reason not to get involved with as much expendable cap space as they have. With nearly $19 million in room to spare, they could easily help facilitate this deal with the least amount of neediness of any potential third partner. Portland could probably squeeze out some more draft capital than I have listed, because this is another transaction that would prioritize the future over rebuilding now. Duncan Robinson and Doug McDermott could form a beautiful YMCA perimeter shooting duo for a year or two, providing ample opportunities for Portland’s young guards to have safety nets on offensive sets that go awry. Devonte’ Graham’s contract is not fully guaranteed, with about $15 million of the $25 million being insured, so Portland could wait out McDermott’s last year and then release Graham if they are eager to make a splash in the subsequent offseason. Tyler Herro would be a fantastic pickup for the Spurs because he provides shot-creation to the worst bench in the league, assuming San Antonio leads off games with a Tre Jones/Devin Vassell backcourt; San Antonio comfortably ranked at the bottom for bench Net Rating (-5.4).

The One That Heat Fans Want

It’s safe to say that many reporters and analysts lack complete faith in Pat Riley’s presidential level of diplomacy when it comes to negotiating, and while a direct Miami-Portland trade seems unlikely, it’s not implausible. Caleb Martin is seen to most as an untouchable asset in as much as a role-player can be due to the Heat’s viewing every player as essential, as we have seen time and time again with their persistent deployment of undrafted sleeper agents. Unfortunately for Miami though, Martin would likely be the sticking point in convincing Portland to take on Tyler Herro in all his backcourt redundancy within their roster. Lowry fits smoothly as a veteran bench leader, but I doubt Portland wants touches to be taken away from their drafted prospects in Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons for the sake of a Lillard-trade byproduct. In terms of value within a vacuum- not accounting for fit -this is likely the best deal Miami would be willing to offer in a team-to-team swap (Nikola Jovic or Haywood Highsmith could be thrown in as well). Getting rid of Jusuf Nurkic’s depreciating value-to-contract ratio would be a plus as well for Portland; it could enable the Trail Blazers to experiment with fast-paced small-ball, or they could pick up cheap filler frontcourt options like Bismack Biyombo or Christian Wood for the time being. The Heat have been needing frontcourt depth for years because even though Bam can size up on offense, he has struggled to endure size on the other end of the floor (refer to Robert Williams II in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals). It’d be difficult to justify throwing Nurkic into a starting lineup with Jimmy Butler and possibly Caleb Martin because of offensive spacing issues, but Nurkic’s three-point frequency hit a career-high last season so it’s still an option.

The One That Breaks NBA Twitter

I am praying to the basketball Gods that this happens because Twitter would be a sight to behold if this occurred, but there are too many personalities and ulterior motives that will likely doom this deal before it even gains traction. Knowing Daryl Morey, he’s probably expecting to be the one to receive Paul George for James Hardens’ expiring contract in this blockbuster move. Let’s also return to the egregious transaction that brought Paul George to the Clippers in the first place (9 picks, a future All-NBA Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danillo Gallinari) and how the future trauma it will cause the organization guarantees that Los Angeles will accept nothing short of an overpayment for the forward. Still though, George would be a perfect long-term fit for a Portland roster with no real wing talent besides Jerami Grant.