NBA Mock Draft 2023 (Lottery Picks)
Who I think each lottery team should select with their sought-after picks.
1. Spurs — Victor Wembanyama (Metro 92)
There isn’t much that needs to be said about Victor Wembanyama that hasn’t been said already, but his unicorn status makes him a great fit for pretty much every team. He has the size of a center, but plays in the smaller front-court with the shooting ability of a wing and the ball-handling potential of a guard. He might have trouble with executing the same self-creating freedom he had in France due to the sheer size discrepancies of his new professional competitors. Still though, he has a solid skill set in every facet of his offensive and defensive game, and while he is inherently a master of none as a rookie, the fact that the elite growth is possible in every aspect of his plating style is grounds for celebration in San Antonio.
2. Hornets — Brandon Miller (Alabama)
Brandon Miller is not my 2nd best player in the class, but he is a clear top 5 pick and Charlotte’s commitment to LaMelo might lead them to try to prioritize fit over the best available player. The Hornets have absolutely no wing depth besides a rapidly regressing Gordon Hayward and a reserve-level player in Cody Martin. Miller is a perfect complementary archetype to the heliocentric LaMelo Ball, as the Alabama forward became a great C&S threat (82nd percentile according to Synergy) and will be an extremely effective partner in transition (82nd percentile according to Synergy). Miller needs to finish stronger at the rim, because if he struggled against college players, it might be difficult to watch him drive against NBA defenders, but the framework for success is still there for Charlotte.
3. Raptors (Toronto gives Portland Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher and their 2023 13th Pick/Portland gives Toronto Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic and their 2023 3rd Pick) — Scoot Henderson (G League Ignite)
If Portland wants to commit to Dame, Toronto seems like the best bet for trading to acquire a star in exchange for a potential franchise cornerstone in Scoot Henderson. Henderson is built to the extent that his 6’2” stature becomes irrelevant when he kicks it into second-gear when he crashes the basket on offense. Henderson is one of the most athletically explosive draft prospects in NBA history, and these bursts of speed help him create space for himself and teammates with little trickery in his dribble moves or body movement. This isn’t to say he isn’t technically gifted as well, as he wields an deceptively tight pull-back crossover that leaves defenders in the dust. Henderson’s jump shot is still a work in progress, but his floor is incredibly high because of his physical traits that free him of requiring much help in creating interior offense.
4. Rockets — Amen Thompson (Overtime Elite)
Watching Amen Thompson play in basically a professional pick-up league with Overtime Elite emphasized his ability to keep up with the rapid speed of NBA gameplay. Although the league was mostly a transition slug-fest with little offensive organization, Thompson used this to show how he’s good at not only speeding up the pace of play, but slowing it down and allowing it to run through him. Thompson is also an antsy defender who collected 2 SPG and 0.9 BPG last season. Thompson adds on to the repertoire of this class’s guards without a certifiable jump-shot, but his increasing willingness to take his chances is a silver lining underneath his inefficient numbers outside of the paint.
5. Pistons — Cam Whitmore (Villanova)
I was slightly baffled when the Pistons decided to trade Saddiq Bey to the Atlanta Hawks last season, as he seemed to be a promising 3-and-D wing, but Cam Whitmore as a replacement should soften the loss for Detroit fans. Next to Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson, Whitmore is the most explosive player in the draft, as evident by his almost 41 inch vertical. He managed to create offense for himself on a depleted Villanova roster, in which he began to develop a decent three-ball. His high offensive responsibility in college put him in many situations where he would dribble himself into oblivion, but having Cade Cunningham at the helm will enable Whitmore to capitalize on what he’s great at.
6. Magic — Jarace Walker (Houston)
Jarace Walker should provide the Magic with the frontcourt defense that they need to alleviate the responsibilities of their offensively-minded centers, but Walker is agile enough to be able to assist against positions 2–5. Walker is incredibly broad and strong, but his stature clearly does not weigh him down and it allows him to attack the rim consistently without much resistance. Walker also enjoys being put in positions to showcase his shooting abilities in coalition with his strength that allows him to back down defenders to create space for himself. Walker might not develop into a bonafide star, but he’s the utilitarian pick for a Magic team that is affluent in developmental talent.
7. Indiana — Ausar Thompson (Overtime Elite)
Ausar Thompson has a better jump-shot than his brother, and has the potential to be even more of a lockdown defender, but lacks that athletic edge that puts Amen into the upper-echelon of prospects. Thompson is a great connecting piece that can weave an offense or defense together with his versatile frame; you can find his fingerprints on every part of his squad’s game. Thompson should be a suitable foil for Tyrese Haliburton by decreasing his playmaking load, or by leading the second-unit to lessen the offensive weight on young players like Bennedict Mathurin.
8. Wizards — Anthony Black (Arkansas)
Besides Victor Wembanyama at #1, there is no pick in the lottery that I believe is as good a fit as Anthony Black to the Wizards. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are obviously not long-term starting options, so Black could hypothetically start on Day #1. Black is not a heliocentric offense facilitator because he still lacks a consistent jump-shot, but Arkansas’s spacing was so stringent that he may develop one faster than expected. Black will take the playmaking load off Bradley Beal who can focus on getting to his spots more, and I predict a good connection between Black and Porzingis that could allow the big-man to find more high-percentage shots near the rim. Black is also up there with Cason Wallace as being one of the best defenders in the class, and his size and speed will bode well for having a safer defensive rookie floor than most other college players who make the professional transition.
9. Jazz — Cason Wallace (Kentucky)
The Jazz lack backcourt defense and Cason Wallace is one of the best in the 2023 class at it. Kris Dunn was a nice pickup towards the end of last season, but his potential has likely capped out, while Utah’s only other true point-guard is Collin Sexton, who is a great offensive spark-plug, but usually in terms of creating for himself. Cason is great at collapsing the interior defense through his drives which will provide players like Lauri Markkanen numerous C&S opportunities, and I always have faith in Kentucky guards that seem to have hidden offensive talents that coach John Calipari saves for when they get to the league (De’Aaron Fox and SGA).
10. Mavericks — Taylor Hendricks (UCF)
There are rumors that the Mavericks may be shopping their 10th pick, especially if they don’t re-sign Kyrie Irving. I’d opt to keep both the pick and the point-guard because it would further justify the selection of Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks’ ceiling is incredibly high as a 3-level scorer who has the height, length and athleticism to further develop. If I was the General Manager of a team like the Mavs who clearly still want to win now, I’d much rather invest in a prospect that has base talents that can be accentuated by NBA conditioning, such as bulking up or getting more comfortable handling the ball, than a player who might be a skillset redundancy when compared to the rest of the roster.
11. Magic — Gradey Dick (Kansas)
The Magic are stacked in pretty much every department; except it’s mainly with works in progress. For the backcourt, they have Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris. For the frontcourt, they have Wendell Carter Jr., Bol Bol, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (who’s brother they may re-sign as well. This leaves an empty slot for a similar need as Portland, an off-ball creator. Gradey Dick fits well in between a bulky frontcourt and a small backcourt by interweaving the two as a lanky 6’8” forward. While he isn’t great at shutting down his opposition in 1-on-1 situations, he’s a high effort and motor defender that is athletic and willing enough on offense to read a situation and properly decide whether the best choice is to C&S or drive.
12. Thunder — Brice Sensabaugh (Ohio State)
The Thunder have very little when it comes to on-ball creators besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and occasionally Josh Giddey, so Brice Sensabaugh seems like a sensible option to reinforce their bench unit that lacks much creativity. Sensabaugh is a mid-range assassin with a stocky build and an aggressive style of play. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, but OKC cannot consistently rely on C&S threats like Isaiah Joe and defensive-minded players like Jaylin Williams to inspire a second line of offensive attack.
13. Trail Blazers — Jordan Hawkins (UConn)
Assuming that the trade I have mocked actually happens, it would serve Portland well to finally give Damian Lillard an alternative reliable perimeter source that isn’t himself and isn’t extremely ball-dominant. Jordan Hawkins works tirelessly off the ball and is incredibly low maintenance in terms of getting him to his spots. Portland’s perimeter shooting has been mediocre since the ‘20-’21 season and if they insist on rebuilding around Dame, it’s essential that they draft someone who is more of a plug-and-play rather than a project.
14. Pelicans — Keyonte George (Baylor)
It’s about time that New Orleans gives up on their vision of CJ McCollum facilitating the offense. By no means has McCollum been detrimental in the role, but the precedent of his time in Portland makes it abundantly clear that he is more useful as a shot-creating bucket-getter who can pair nicely alongside Brandon Ingram with both of their natural ability to not require offensive sets to create points. Keyonte George is similar to McCollum in his ability to create space for himself, but his playmaking prowess grew throughout his freshman year for Baylor. Additionally, he’s effective enough as an off-ball shooter that he can be a fall-back option when the endless amounts of isolation plays become futile between Ingram, McCollum and Zion Williamson.
