Risers and Fallers in March Madness
Players who’s draft stock rose and fell throughout the tourney.
This is my first year really paying attention to college basketball and what a year to be introduced to its magic. I have always been captured by March Madness because of its stakes that seem to outweigh those of professional leagues’ playoff series, even when the individual reward for most of the players involved pales in comparison to the pros. Limiting the scope to basketball, it is easy to point out how 7-game NBA series sometimes feel nonchalant in comparison to March Madness’ single elimination.
Many NBA players have their individual lives already set up for success; they are often multi-millionaires and while playoff success can inflate their future value, there is not the same incentive to win as there is in March Madness. For college players, March Madness can determine a life of playing overseas or definitely retiring from basketball, as opposed to earning a guaranteed contract in the first round of the NBA Draft, or at least a shot of prosperity in the second round through a two-way deal.
Watching the NBA playoffs becomes an exercise of familiarity; even if you’re a casual fan, you’ll likely know the best guys on each team, which franchises have been historically great and that seeding is typically more indicative of the outcome of the postseason. Although this NBA season has produced far more talent parity than in the past– there is no clear title favorite –you are able to watch the same players you see all regular season grind it out underneath a nationally televised magnifying glass. For most viewers of March Madness, this is the first time you are seeing some teams and players hoop. Did I watch a single Florida Atlantic University game this season? Hell no. Next to my hometown University of Miami, have I been emphatically expressing my Floridian pride in the hopes of seeing a UM vs. FAU National Championship game? Hell yeah. And, that’s the beauty of college athletics. FAU, a team seen as an underdog to most, entered the tournament as the 25th best team in the country, according to barttorvik.com’s T-Rank. They are not an underdog in the true sense of a David vs. Goliath story in terms of skill level, but they sure are in terms of brand name. People are making a fuss about how this is the first time in history where the Final Four does not feature a 3-seed or better, but T-Rank placed the 4th-seeded UConn as the 5th best overall team in the country. My point is that high stakes expose those who are, or aren’t, battle-ready, and that certainly applies to players trying to improve their draft stock before the normally trivial pre-draft process.
So, I wanted to talk about some guys who caught my eye throughout the madness, for better or worse.
Norchad Omier
Call me biased, delusional or outright wrong, but Norchad Omier is a player that I could totally see going late in the 2nd-round; or, more appropriately, picked up by the Miami Heat’s scouts who are constantly keen on finding undrafted diamonds in the rough. Regardless, with as little dynamism as Omier’s game has, the excellency of his March performances are indisputable. Omier is certainly restricted to putbacks, second-chance points and generally close-range shots on offense, and has not been terrifically efficient so far, but his impact on the boards and overall toughness reminds me of Montrezl Harrell when he was in 6th Man of the Year form. Averaging 13.3 RPG (4.3 of which are Offensive Rebounds!) throughout the tournament is an absurd feat that should be respected for its fundamentalist approach to basketball. Every youth coach tells their impressionable players to always box out and follow every shot, and Omier strikes me as those ideals come true. In Miami’s last 5 games, Omier has been the largest net-positive in terms of team performance when he’s on the court, contributing to a +47.9 Net Rating, as well as an insane decrease of -11.2% and -17.8% for opponents’ ORB% and FTA Rate respectively. There’s not much developmental hope for a player like Omier, but you know what you’re getting with him and NBA teams in need of glass-crashers could do far worse than the former Arkansas St. big-man.
Jordan Hawkins
I’ll keep this shorter than I normally would because people are raving about the sharpshooter from UConn because of his offensive perimeter heroics that have contributed to a streak of dominance, but he must be mentioned regardless. I once thought of Hawkins as a similar archetype to Kevin Huerter, a 3-point specialist with underrated athleticism that enables him to avoid being boxed in as solely a roamer around the three-point line; and while his March Madness performances have certainly showed that natural prowess, I have become more fascinated by his mechanics. Hawkins’ shooting form is reminiscent of all the great snipers who have had almost mechanical-looking shooting forms, such as J.J. Reddick, Ray Allen, among others. Hawkins is so unbothered by any pressure and seems to have such a deep understanding of his court presence to the extent that he knows when a defender is behind, to the side or about to be in front of him, but it doesn’t even matter because he’s that damn good. The speed he has off-ball to turn corners and navigate screens translates for when he wants to slash to the basket as well; I could definitely understand why he’s shooting up many analysts’ draft boards.
Amari Bailey
It’s been a while since the days of Amari Bailey gracing the Instagram feed of every high-school highlight account because of his illustrious career with the star-studded Sierra Canyon basketball team, but March Madness gave us a reason to talk about him after a forgettable Freshman season. Bailey went into this season as a former top-10 nationally-ranked high-school player who seemed destined for the 2023 NBA Draft to seem like more of a prospect than a complete package. Once March hit though, Bailey finished his first few experiences in the field averaging 4 APG, 4.3 RPG, and 16.7 PPG on ridiculous splits of 66.7% from downtown and 56.3% from the field; improvements on all fronts. Bailey’s composure and ability to orchestrate an offense was on full display, and at 6’5”, his size suits him well for a modern NBA that occasionally puts a premium on jumbo-point-guards. Bailey may be better off returning to UCLA to guarantee a first-round selection, but the potential could have an established playoff team seeing no reason not to take the risk. Whether or not either of these possibilities occur, as well as their benefit on Bailey’s development, remains yet to be seen.
What about the guys whose stock took a hit from this month?
Brandon Miller
I genuinely cannot believe the narrative that has catapulted Alabama’s Brandon Miller into the #2-spot conversation for the 2023 NBA Draft. I start to believe it when I start to distinguish draft-focused pundits in comparison to general NBA fans; the latter often has an inherent bias towards successful NCAA products, as well as a tendency to bring down opposition to promote their own candidate. Miller’s horrendous March Madness performances consisted of shooting under 25% from both the perimeter and the field. It’s surprising to see Miller struggle like this, especially with how similar his performances against Quad 1 teams were to other matches. Miller is immensely talented and surely a potential future NBA All-Star, but I think it’s time to cool it for now.
Nick Smith Jr./Keyonte George
I’m bundling these two together because the main concerns between both of them were their efficiency. George had the benefit of a full season to adjust to the game’s pace, as opposed to the initially injured Smith Jr., and he looked more erratic than ever in Baylor’s quick demise. Smith Jr. never looked fully comfortable as a formerly seemingly guaranteed lottery-pick, and even though Arkansas’ Coach Musselman continuously had faith in the youngster throughout the tourney, it didn’t show at times that counted the most. Smith Jr. found himself on the bench during crunch time moments that required high-effort defense, and while the guard is constantly capable of getting shots off, the better looks became even more scarce for a guy who was already shooting sub-40% from the field for the season.
All of this being said, who knows how much weight scouts will be putting on the tourney regarding these players’ draft positions, but for some, will it raise concerns or put doubts to rest?
