Should Arsenal break the bank for Mykhailo Mudryk?
All signs point to yes.
Mykhailo Mudryk has captured the imagination of powerhouse English Premier League Clubs. Arsenal were seen as a definite landing spot for the Ukrainian winger, but Todd Boehly’s Chelsea attempted to hijack the deal as part of the club’s restless and spontaneous transfer strategies since the American owner took control. Regardless, ESPN reports that Arsenal are nearing a €100 million deal with Shakhtar Donetsk for the attacker. Arsenal’s monolithic control over Mudryk’s fate is supported by Chelsea’s decision to settle with a pricey loan for Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix to calm their desire for a forward. Even through the turmoil that Ukraine’s Premier League has endured as a result of Russia’s illegal annexation of multiple regions within the country, Mudryk has been a bright spot for the nation’s increasingly promising generation of young footballers taking over Europe; such as Manchester City’s Oleksandr Zinchenko and Everton’s Vitaliy Mykolenko.
The Russia-Ukraine War has further intensified the spotlight on homegrown Ukrainian talent because of many foreign Ukrainian league players opting to depart the country out of safety and career stability concerns. Mudryk’s Shakhtar Donetsk wielded 13 non-Ukrainian members of their roster; almost half of the entire squad (there were 16 Ukrainian players). This season is a completely different composition though, as only 3 foreign-born players are on the active first-team. This has predictably given Mudryk more time to shine; the 21-year-old has only one more game played this season than last campaign but has played almost 300 more league minutes, as well as almost 200 more minutes in the Champions League. With last season’s benchmark of a typical Shakhtar roster being taken into account with his progressively larger role this season, is Mudryk truly worth the money?
Basic counting stats say so: Mudryk has matched his assist tally from last season, but has increased his goalscoring by 5. This has his goals per 90 minutes (G/90) at .69; and even when you remove penalties from the equation, it stands at a rate of .52, good enough for the 99th percentile of midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues. As his direct scoring impact has increased, the frequency of his creative output has taken a backseat; his assists per 90 minutes (A/90) has decreased from last season’s .86 to .59. But that is okay for an Arsenal team that would like to use him as a scoring replacement to the injured Gabriel Jesus, but then could transition Mudryk back into his familiar role of creating opportunities for others. Mudryk has become keen to score, as his progressive runs per 90 minutes has increased from 3.66 to 4.13, but as he looks to be able to finish from his own off-ball movement, he has become less active as an offensive orchestrator. This is emphasized by his 5.83 touches per 90 minutes decreasing to 4.59, as well as his almost 2 less dribbles per 90. Still, Mudryk ranks among the upper-echelon of his position for his dribbles completed and attempted per 90, while landing in the 93rd percentile for progressive passes received.
This clip above showcases the mature intelligence and selflessness of how Mudryk can create offensive opportunities without being as ball-dominant as he used to be in his former attacking-midfield role that has gradually transformed into a bonafide winger. Although Mudryk does not even receive the ball in this effort, he runs parallel with his teammate for about a third of the pitch until he cuts outwards, this effectively drags the man marking him out of the play entirely, which almost sets up a close-range chance executed by his fellow playmaker.
Just because Mudryk doesn’t have his hand in as much build-up as he used to does not mean that his off-ball mobility simply acts as complementary more so than assertive. TBR Football observed that Mudryk reached the highest speed in this year’s Champions League competition with an insane peak of 36.6 km/h (or 22.74 mph). This is faster than pace-merchants such as Alphonso Davies (36.2 km/h) and Theo Hernández (35.7 km/h). This goal highlights how his athleticism allows him to outrun his attached defender, in addition to the goalkeeper of whom he has the composure to dribble past and score horizontally. Even if Mudryk is unable to finish the job himself, his seemingly ambidextrous ability to cross the ball is effective enough to compensate for certain miscalculations. His craftiness also invites aggressive contention from defenders who he draws 1.57 fouls per 90 minutes from (73rd percentile).
This clip further accentuates the utilities provided by Mudryk’s exceptional pace. Here he is able to become a pseudo-full-back in order to prevent a future run down the side-line that likely would have developed into a cross into the final attacking third. This also restricts attackers from dribbling past Mudryk as frequently as they would other wingers, as the Ukrainian ranks in the 93rd percentile because of how scarce such moments are.
The fact that Mudryk’s time at Shakhtar has given him experience against some European juggernauts provides additional credence to the sophisticated attributes that the winger has rapidly developed. Smarterscout rates his ability to pass towards goals in this year’s Champions League as 80 out of a maximum of 99 for wingers. Considering that this evaluation is based off of performances against opponents like RB Leipzig and Real Madrid, as well as the storied Scottish side Celtic, Gunners should be more comfortable than assumed about his ability to play at the pinnacle of European competition. Whether Mudryk’s play justifies the price tag is yet to be seen, but do not be surprised if he becomes a formidable return on investment.
Referenced stats are from Wyscout, smarterscout and FBRef.
