State Your Intentions! — A Confusing Upcoming NBA Offseason
Trying to figure out some existing inquiries within the NBA landscape.
We live in an era of NBA superstardom where players reign supreme and management must create viable methods of sustaining their roster’s happiness. The money keeps flooding into the NBA, as evident by the new CBA agreement that enables certain players to sign extensions that increase their salaries by 40% (formerly 20%) in its first year. To paraphrase the legendary Biggie Smalls, money can sometimes lead to more problems, and this becomes abundantly apparent when trying to decipher the psyche of players’ free agency and contract decisions. To quote another rap icon, the great MF Doom once rapped “State your intentions / I really love your tape but I hate your inventions”. It serves players well to cloak their desires from the public to create the “will they/won’t they” dynamic with onlookers that can incite further momentum towards what they eventually want, but there are players who currently sit in a position of personal established success (James Harden), who is a multi-millionaire and has reached every stratosphere of prosperity besides an NBA championship. On the other hand, there are players like Deandre Ayton, whose fate is in the hands of higher-ups, but can use potential ulterior motives to get what he wants. We love the tape, or the playing styles, of some of these players, but it sometimes feels like fans are more disconnected from their beloved stars than previously thought. So, I wanted to take a look at some of the biggest question marks for this upcoming offseason and try to formulate a resolution that can make everybody content, or at least provides closure.
James Harden — Stay In Philly To Win/Go To Houston To Cash Out
The bars that follow the aforementioned MF Doom lyrics are “Very well — what you want, a brownie? / He took off the mask and whispered put me where you found me”. Many believe this is the ultimate reveal that we will be getting with Harden this offseason, a homecoming that sheds light on his indestructible love for the life that Houston gave him. Houston would be an interesting scenario, as he would be replacing Kevin Porter Jr. to pair with Jalen Green in the backcourt in coalition with a bunch of developing enigmas in Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. More than this though, Houston has the 4th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and while I have them mocked to take Amen Thompson, this selection would not make sense if Harden were to return to facilitate the offense. Harden’s return to Houston would effectively accelerate the team’s rebuilding process by basically giving them the deadline worth the length of the former MVP’s contract. Ime Udoka’s single year as Boston’s head coach earned him considerable standing around the league in his ability to link together a cohesive unit, but would Harden really buy in to his defensive-minded and uber-organized coaching style while entering the 15th season, and ultimately the twilight, of his prime? I doubt it, but Philadelphia may rather invest in younger potential than have to reward Harden’s playoff mediocrity with a massive contract that Brian Windhorst reported to be in the range of a 4-year/$200M deal. Still, I believe it is in Harden’s best interest to give it another go with Embiid, a new coach and a pay cut in order to reinforce Philly’s roster.
Kyrie Irving — Reciprocate Commitment
No player is more difficult to predict than Kyrie Irving. Year after year of alleged commitments and then swift de-commitments to teams who have risked their futures by restructuring around the 2016 NBA Champion has left a sour taste in the mouths of many front offices and peers. Kyrie is always going to do what is best for Kyrie, and while I never liked how he fit in with Luka Doncic, I suggest re-signing with Dallas in order to finally attempt some sustainability in his post-Cleveland career. Kyrie has the talent for a maximum contract, but his physical health and personal behavior has shown itself to be unreliable in times of desperation. Dallas mortgaged a considerable amount of their tradable assets in order to give Doncic a real superstar companion, so it’s definitely in their best interest not to let their ultimate target walk away after half of a season and no postseason. There aren’t many franchises I could see taking a chance on Kyrie, much less have the cap space to do so, so for better or worse, Kyrie and Dallas seem like a match-made in NBA purgatory.
Deandre Ayton — Try To Trade With Indiana For Myles Turner
Deandre Ayton’s postseason was less than ideal. The former #1 pick was mocked relentlessly on social media for his perceived lack of effort, physical prowess and temper tantrums in the Suns’ semifinal series against the Denver Nuggets, even to the extent that role-player Jock Landale provided a refreshing sense of urgency. We all know Ayton did not want to re-sign with the Suns last offseason and was off to Indiana before Phoenix matched the offer sheet. On top of this, this past season’s trade deadline rumors revived hard feelings from those tense negotiations. It is rumored that Phoenix is testing the value of both Ayton and Chris Paul for an offseason trade, but Paul is regressing exponentially at 38 years old and wields a virtually untradeable contract, so Ayton seems like their guy to move. The sensible decision would be to attempt to execute the perpetually rumored trade of Ayton for Indiana’s Myles Turner, which would finally give Phoenix some proper front-court defense and offensive spacing, but the Pacers may be content with the Tyrese Haliburton-Myles Turner tandem that has worked out better than expected. It also doesn’t help that Ayton’s stock is probably at its lowest point in the young center’s career.
Jaylen Brown — Trade Away During Last Contract Year To Try To Recoup Value
Jaylen Brown is in the undesirable situation of being seen as the lesser aspect of the redundancy in a duo of wings that consist of Jayson Tatum and himself. Brown is a proven All-NBA talent, which is what has now earned him that increasingly lucrative extension as outlined by the CBA that I mentioned before. Assuming the Celtics succumb to the Miami Heat– an incredibly unpredictable demise –Brown might be looking to take his abilities to a team that sees him as their #1 option. His standing as Tatum’s side-kick was made clear to him during last offseason and throughout the regular season, when rumors began to swirl about Boston’s front office testing his trade value. Moreover, Brown has added fuel to the fire by maintaining a noncommittal stance. Rebuilding teams like the Rockets, Thunder and Pistons may be looking to spend their existing cap space on a proficient forward, while organizations like the Pelicans and Bulls might simply be looking for a fresh alternative to their current options. Brown enjoys being opaque with the media, and that’ll make it hard to forecast his eventual decision, but a fourth Conference Finals loss out of five tries might provoke an abrupt end to his Boston career. Brown and Tatum are an elite duo, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to build a roster around two players who will be making a combined ~$500 million between them if they both receive the extension that they are eligible for. If the Celtics fall short this postseason, I say cut your losses.
