Top 3 best and worst picks of 2023 NBA Draft
Some of the biggest steals and misses.
Best Picks:
Brice Sensabaugh (Ohio State) -> 28th Pick by Utah Jazz
Jordan Clarkson has yet to make a decision about his Player Option heading into next season, but Brice Sensabaugh could serve as a bulkier prototype to replace the former 6th Man of the Year. Sensabaugh was one of the most efficient scorers in all of college basketball last season for Ohio State; he averaged 16.3 PPG with a TS% that landed him in the 81st percentile. Not to mention that he maintained this standard of play with a Usage Rate that placed him in the 99th percentile of all Division 1 players. Sensabaugh can find his own shots, even without a deep bag of tricks to deploy, as depicted by his 95th percentile level of 2nd-chance PPG due in part to his bruising style of play. More than all this though, Sensabaugh was someone I had penned in as easily a top-20 player in the 2023 class, so Utah getting him at the end of the 1st round is a steal in my eyes.
Cam Whitmore (Villanova) -> 20th Pick by Houston Rockets
This selection is likely most analysts and draft fanatics’ top choice for the steal of the draft, as Cam Whitmore was supposedly a lock for the top 10, and even as high as the top 5 for some big boards. Whitmore is arguably the most athletically gifted player in the class, only Scoot Henderson (3rd Pick) and Amen Thompson (4th Pick) are on level with him; Whitmore measured with a 40.5-inch vertical leap at the combine. Obviously, there are rumors surrounding his supposed fall, such as concerns about his personal motivation and dedication to the game, but there is no way that you pass up on a guy with potential all-star value with the 20th pick. Whitmore’s addition to the Rockets certifies the roster as wielding arguably the most explosive young core in the league: Whitmore, Amen and Jalen Green.
Dereck Lively II (Duke) → 10th Pick by Oklahoma City Thunder (traded to Dallas Mavericks for Cason Wallace (12th Pick) and Davis Bertans)
Not only did the Mavericks manage to get their plug-and-play center of the future with this draft-night transaction, but they managed to dump Bertans’ egregious salary as the cherry on top. Many strict NBA fans who often don’t delve deep into prospects outside of the top 5 were immediately questioning Lively’s college production as unqualified for a lottery inclusion, but the tape and advanced numbers tell a different story. Lively became arguably the best interior defender towards the end of the college basketball season; 99th percentile for Block Rate, BPG and he kept opposing players to below 40% FG% at the rim (insane). Lively has so much room to grow, as he clearly began to develop valuable, but raw, tendencies in both a willingness to space the floor and to be a connecting piece through playmaking. Lively should be an almost immediate starter for Dallas, and will provide them with some much needed help within the paint on both sides of the floor.
Worst Picks:
Jett Howard (Michigan) → 11th Pick by Orlando Magic
Jett Howard has a beautifully smooth and fluid playing style that was enticing to watch at a college level, but I do not believe that he has a quick enough first step or the defensive chops to warrant a lottery pick. Howard is an okay team defender and there’s hope that he could simply just be slotted into a predetermined system, but he could be targeted in isolation situations more than a team would like for such a potential offensive spark plug. Howard struggled immensely when he was assigned to smaller and shiftier guards, as encapsulated by his 18th percentile defense towards P&R Ball Handlers. I find it difficult to see him sharing the floor with other bigger ball-dominant scorers like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero until he can be a boon on defense.
Jordan Hawkins (UConn) → 14th Pick by New Orleans Pelicans
I love Jordan Hawkins, the Pelicans don’t need him though. Hawkins is arguably the best shooter in the class, and easily the most talented off-ball mover, but if he’s not playing alongside a lineup with Zion Williamson that requires spacing, his role becomes unclear. This is particularly the case because New Orleans’ entire depth chart is full of floor-spacers; a lineup consisting of Hawkins, Trey Murphy III, Naji Marshall, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels would probably not step foot into the paint for any given possession for cited reasons like an inability to create space to attack the rim and a natural affinity to hang around the perimeter for each player. Hawkins is a bouncier rim-finisher than many may be led to believe, but that’s obviously not going to be what New Orleans wants from him, as his scouting report directly points to a specialist pathway. This is an unfortunate situation because I don’t have any criticism of Hawkins as a player for why he would work better on a team besides New Orleans, it’s more so how he’ll be treated within the roster he now has at hand.
Jalen Hood-Schifino (Indiana) → 17th Pick by Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are an absolutely average pick-and-roll team; placing 16th in frequency with 19.2 possessions per game last season. Pick-and-roll offense is pretty much the only thing Jalen Hood-Schifino has a total grasp on when facilitating an offense, as about 40% of his possessions revolved around it as a set-up. Other than that, he’s not a very efficient shooter (46.3 eFG%), which means he’s not a proven off-ball threat, in addition to the fact that he rarely attacks the rim aggressive enough (18th percentile for Personal Fouls Drawn per FGA). Even if the Lakers choose to revolve their offense around him off the bench, who is he running P&R with besides Anthony Davis as of right now? Hood-Schifino would absolutely be valuable on another team with agile big-men or 3-and-D wings who can roll to the perimeter, but the Lakers do not have the appropriate roster to complement his skillset.
*Stats are courtesy of Synergy and CBB Analytics
