What’s Really Standing in the Way of Amazon Drones
It’ll take a lot more than FAA approval to make it happen.
Look! In the sky! It’s a bird…it’s a plane…it’s…not an Amazon drone because that’s totally not going to happen. Ok, I don’t mean that—let’s just say it’s not likely to happen anytime soon. But contrary to the slew of articles that point to FAA approval and technology as the reasons why, there’s another huge factor standing in the way. Here’s a hint: 30 minute drone deliveries mean that the product you ordered needs to be sitting 30 minutes away from you to begin with. And if you look at all the weird stuff you can order online, you’ll realize that the life-size replica of Screech from ‘Saved by the Bell’ you just bought probably isn’t as close to you as you think (that’d be creepy).
But why not?
First, let’s reiterate (yes, this early on in the blog): just because it can be delivered quickly doesn’t mean it’s available to be delivered in the first place. A lot of people who saw that awesome video in the ‘60 Minutes’ piece may not have realized this, because they were too busy running (naked) around the house screaming, “the future is here!” That being said, it was a magnificent PR stunt—but now that it’s over, people want to know why it can or can’t happen. Well, Amazon pretty much tells you on their website:
“Your items ship as they become available […] otherwise, the delivery may be delayed.”
And that’s what’s likely to happen if and when the drone service ever becomes available. Consumers will find out—quickly—that a lot of orders won’t be eligible to arrive within the expected 30 minutes. This isn’t to say that they can’t get drone delivery—they’ll just have to wait until the item gets to a nearby fulfillment center first.
“But I thought Amazon has a bunch of fulfillment centers!”
Well, you’re right—and wrong. It all depends on what you consider ‘a bunch’. According to Amazon, the company has just over 50 worldwide—and looking at the U.S. alone, there are only 14. That’s way too few to meet the 30-minute delivery window for any sizable amount of the population. This will change though, as Amazon has been spending billions of dollars for some time—building new warehouses around the world with the goal of delivering products more quickly. But doing that takes time, especially considering that the centers need to be no more than 10 miles away from the person receiving the delivery (that’s the most distance the drone can travel).
Patience.
Let’s be honest—Amazon is the same company that started out selling books, and only books (delivered by CEO Jeff Bezos himself). Now look at them. It’s safe to say they’ve not only come a long way, but have a long, fruitful road ahead of them. But to make good on their promise of drone delivery, they need to focus on more than just technology and regulations—they need to concentrate on building as many new fulfillment centers as possible. Derryl Jenkins, a consultant who focuses on drones put it best:
“Jeff Bezos might be the single person in the universe who could make something like this happen. For what it worth, this is a guy who’s totally changed retailing.”
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