(The investment opinions expressed in this article are my own. Please do your own due diligence before investing.)
I’ve become extremely fascinated by the idea of economic fragility. That as countries borrow increasingly more (both public and private sector), it makes them increasingly economically fragile.
Make no mistake public and private debt are closely related. The first point to understand is that debt and spending are two sides of the same coin. People, companies, and governments borrow in order to consume or invest. So one person’s debt often becomes another’s income.
When the productivity of the economy is not enough…
(My personal opinions only. Please do your own due diligence before making any investments.)
The linked article below on gold by David B. Clear is the best thing I’ve read all week. It’s absolutely delightful. By process of elimination (and science) Mr. Clear shows how gold ended up becoming the most precious of precious metals.
I like gold — the color and symbolism of it has appealed to me for as long as I can remember. Thus, I’ve always owned a few coins as a hobby (it’s not a significant portion of my portfolio as I prefer to invest in…
(My opinions only. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.)
If you’ve been reading my thoughts on investing for a while, you will have realized by now that I’m a reasonably conservative investor. I do have my growth bets and will dabble in trendy tech stocks from time to time, but the core of my portfolio is invested in what I deem to be robust and sustainable businesses with economic moats selling for a reasonable price, plus some cash (the size of which varies depending on my read of equity valuations).
Over time, I’ve realized there…
(My opinions only. Not intended to be investment advice. Full disclosure — I own put options on TLT)
An under-appreciated risk is the rising correlation between stocks and bonds. This is of course a result of inflation fears driving interest rates up, which on the margin hurts both stocks and bonds. The higher the blue line in the plot below goes, the less bonds hedge stocks, and the higher the risk of a supposedly diversified portfolio becomes (Treasury bonds are the primary diversifier).
We’ve all heard the saying “money is the root of all evil”. This comes from the bible, the original quote being:
“For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.”
Even the secular among us can see some truth in this. It's not hard to think of someone whose eagerness for money has caused them grief. Many examples of this immediately come to mind when I consider my time working in finance. Most of my ex-colleagues hated their stressful jobs…
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is slowly but steadily becoming a bigger and bigger part of mainstream economics and central banking. If you’re not familiar with its basics, here’s a brief primer I wrote about it:
The biggest divide between MMT and traditional economics is its view on federal debt. Under MMT, the national debt is nothing more than a formality — because the U.S. issues debt in its own currency, it…
(Not intended to be investment advice)
What a week. The ebullient markets of just a week or two ago now seem like a distant memory. The stock market is volatile and scary again and everything seems to be going down.
But it’s also important to keep things in perspective — despite all the turbulence, markets are just a bit off their all-time highs.
They say investing is all about the long run. The problem is that to get to the long run, you need to get through the short run. And all the noise and FOMO that comes with it. I’ve long believed that mega-cap tech is the way to go, so it’s been hard watching junkier companies outperform my favorite stocks for much of the past 12 months.
I lay out some of my thinking about why I like these companies here. It’s not a creative thesis by any means, but I continue to think that these companies are great investments hiding…
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