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It’s In The Quality Of The Business And The Profits

(Not intended to be investment advice. Opinions are my own.)

Recently, I’ve been asked a lot about the value of meme stocks. People see the massive price moves and want to know what’s driving the surges in value along with the volatility.

But rather than focus on meme stocks (which is unproductive — the answer for the most part is FOMO, animal spirits, and collusion in order to impact supply and demand), let’s focus on what drives the value of stocks in general. There are four things that drive a stock’s value in the short and medium run:


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It’s A Geographic Arbitrage

A long time ago I wrote this article. It got no love, but I still believe in what I said. So today, I’m going to say it again:

Blogging (while living overseas in a low-cost country) is a win-win! You earn U.S. or at least developed world rates of pay while paying a much lower cost of living.

I think I went a bit overboard with the analysis in my previous article. It’s really not a complicated concept. Writing on the Internet allows a writer to distribute his thoughts to anyone, anywhere in the world.

And if you live in…


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And Their Impact On The World We Live In

I loved this article by Kareem Kudus. I was listening to a podcast yesterday and heard about the same cobra story that he shares as one of his examples of a seemingly intelligent plan backfiring.

I highly recommend reading the article but the cobra story goes like this:


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And No They Are Not The Same Thing

(Not intended to be investment advice. Opinions are my own.)

You might argue that I’m being picky about semantics, but currency debasement and inflation are not the same thing. As an investor or just as a person who is impacted by economic forces, it’s important to recognize this.

There’s been a lot of recent discussion from more extreme types that hyperinflation is inevitable. There are even subreddits dedicated to this idea:

The premise of Wall Street Silver is that, because of sky-high debt, fiat currencies like the U.S. …


Corporate interests don’t align with those of the people

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Most of my time on Medium has been spent writing about the economic problems that we currently face. Recently, I realized that the root cause of all of them is the same — a misalignment of incentives between certain companies/industries and everyday people — that is the topic of this article.

Berkshire Hathaway hasn’t performed better than the market in a long time. Warren Buffet and his sidekick Charlie Munger seem to have lost their edge when it comes to investing, however, they still have many interesting insights on what’s happening in the world. …


Do You Know How Big a Financial Catastrophe You Could Survive?

The venerable “net worth” is interesting, but its liquid variant answers far more critical questions…

A sheaf of hundred-dollar bills with golden coins on top — nothing is as liquid as cold hard cash.
A sheaf of hundred-dollar bills with golden coins on top — nothing is as liquid as cold hard cash.
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I came to this country owing more than I owned.

In personal finance terms, I had a negative net worth. Negative $4000 to be precise.

But in reality, my finances were even more fragile than that sad number. That’s because part of my nominal net worth was tied up in a used car for which I’d paid $8000.

If an emergency came up and I needed money, I’d be hard-pressed to sell my car immediately, and even if I managed it, I’d probably have had to lower its price significantly.

How do you capture that fragility, or in a better…


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Is This Medium’s Way Of “Granting Us Some Equity” In Their Success?

When I logged in to check my Medium earnings for the day, I was surprised to find another $500 bonus:


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Hear Me Out For A Second

(Not intended to be investment advice. No position — writing this helps me think.)

It sounds crazy. I’ve been railing against bonds for the better part of a year. So why would I suddenly consider investing in levered bonds? This is the next part in my series on Treasury bonds, first part here:

When I say levered bonds, I mean going short cash to go long Treasury bonds. To help understand why this bet makes sense let’s first break down the drivers of return and risk for cash and Treasury bonds:

ReturnCash: Short Term Interest Rate - Inflation Rate


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Article Recommendations For 5/27/2021

This week’s recommendations are centered around crypto and rising interest rates. I do worry a bit about crowded trades and the fact that literally everyone is expecting high inflation. But I’ve (with a great amount of hesitation) come around to the view that there’s few alternatives to stocks and precious metals, despite their elevated prices these days.

During these times, in my opinion, the best an investor can do is stay nimble and use security selection and reasonably priced hedges (via options) to provide a layer of protection.

Here are a few articles that offer various views on how to…


Stock market analysis

Interest rates work on money the same way the sun and moon do on water, they pull it in certain directions. Make sure those forces pull you in the right direction.

Sad investors who did not prepare for higher interest rates [Image by Author] — also, this is actually a medieval depiction of the five foolish virgins showing their sorrow on Magdeburg cathedral

(Disclaimer at the end — Not intended to be investment advice)

In a recent article, I have shared my thoughts on why higher interest rates are coming our way. We have had an abnormally long period with low interest rates, essentially since the financial crisis of 2008. In December 2016, the Fed increased rates again, only to fall flat on its face when Covid shared its opinion about the economy. The world has gotten used to low or non-existent interest rates, but this is about to change. Here are some steps I am taking to make sure my portfolio stays…

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