A Brief History Of Bitcoin, 2009–2045
By Fiat Minimalist on ALTCOIN MAGAZINE
2009 — Bitcoin launched in response to the GFC. Nobody pays attention.
2010 — Bitcoin start getting traded for money. $10. Joke money. 99.999% of the world unaware. The hodlers base grows to 1000+ people worldwide.
2012 — $100. Cyperphunks stage. Play/Nerd money. Early visionaries accumulate 1k — 10k BTC. These are your future multi-billionaires (in today’s fiat terms). Hodlers base widens to 100K people. Many from this group sold into the 2017 bubble but eventually bought back in 2018.
2013 — Second bubble $1000. Drug money. Silk Road busted! Bitcoin will be banned, It’ll never succeed! 99.9% of the world doesn’t care. The number of hodlers grows to ~1m with increased awareness. Libertarians, VCs enter the fray. Silicon Valley interest is piqued, but mostly still view Bitcoin with skepticism.
2015 — Bitcoin has forgotten for a while. Survives Silk Road and the Mt Gox hack, and Bitcoin demonstrates its anti-fragility. Bitcoin mining institutionalized and hashpower protecting Bitcoin grows. Valuation models and on-chain analytics begin to be discussed. Hyperinflation and capital controls in a few countries make Bitcoin’s use case clear. Achieves early Store of Value status. Many people buy 10–100 BTC. These are the future ultra-wealthy (equivalent to today’s ultra high networths).
2017 — Third bubble $20K. Now mainstream. Hodlers estimated at 50m (1% of the adult world population). Bitcoin futures launch. The uninformed public still thinks Bitcoin is a ponzi/scam etc, and that the bubble popped. It’s heading to zero, isn’t it? Unfortunately most end up buying shitcoins as Bitcoin seems “too expensive”.
We’re here >>> 2019 — Bubbles don’t continuously re-inflate if Bitcoin were tulips. Leagues of well respected, incredibly smart people come out in support of Bitcoin. Large well known financial institutions begin offering Bitcoin custody, lending, trading services. Politicians and the smart ultra-rich across the world secretly accumulate Bitcoin because “just in case”. Hedge funds begin allocating to Bitcoin.
2019 4Q — Bitcoin breaks above its all time high of $20K. Most indepedently come to the conclusion Bitcoin isn’t going away. Cognitive dissonance in people who continue to believe that BTC is going to zero. Last chance for the average common folk to be a wholecoiner (owns at least 1 full BTC). ETF approved.
2020 — $50K. Announcement of the first country to back their local currency with Bitcoin. Institutional money in early play.
2021 — $200K. Those in power have established full BTC positions. Their control of the media sparks a new retail bull market. As interest rates go deeper into negative territory globally, BTC is hailed as the saviour, the only way to hedge against fiat monetary insanity. Stock market rally to all time highs but finally falter, BTC rallies in response, and is accepted as the new safe haven asset (Gold 2.0). Challenges gold’s market cap. Private banks begin selling structured products on Bitcoin at the constant requests by clients. Private banking clients dip their toes in, trading in 1–10 BTC notional sizes, and end up buying the top.
2022 — Smart money buys the bottom. This next wave of institutional money floors the price at $50–75K. Bitcoin and other smaller cryptocurrencies become a recognized asset class of its own.
2026 — $300–500K. Mad rush by central banks to begin adding Bitcoin to their reserves both covertly and openly. Some countries attempt banning public speculation but still command their central banks to buy some. Global base of holders grows to 500m. The legal systems in many countries treat Bitcoin as an asset and money. Some companies choose to pay salaries in BTC. Bitcoin achieves early Medium of Exchange status. Sovereign money in full play. Some countries allegedly print more and more fiat in an attempt to accumulate. Bitcoin is re-denominated to its full 8 decimal places (satoshis). The development of Bitcoin’s scaling solutions are complete, network speed is 1m transactions per second. Bitcoin volatility is now extremely low, and doesn’t move more than 0.5% a day. Traditional banks rush to offer Bitcoin banking deposits. Rich private banking clients finally realize Bitcoin is a great store of wealth and starts selling properties for 1 or 2 BTC, and also because “just in case”. The word “millionaire” falls out of vogue; “wholecoiner” now replaces it. Millennials love Bitcoin, they’ve never grown up in a world where Bitcoin didnt exist. To them, its as natural as the sun. Automatic savings plans from monthly paychecks are popular.
2030 — Digital assets and the digital economy proliferate. A large number of digital-native goods and services begin denoting prices in Bitcoin instead of $. Bitcoin achieves early Unit of Account status. 5% of the world’s $300 trillion wealth gets sucked into Bitcoin’s gravity well. Bitcoin is now $1m (1 satoshi = 1 US cent). Perfectly normal for a wealthy individual to hold as much as 50% of their networth in Bitcoin. Real estate enters a generational bear market as it loses its coveted Store of Value status to Bitcoin.
2035 — $2m. The first country abandons its own local currency completely and adopts Bitcoin. Achieves unpredecented economic growth. More countries follow suit. Large parts of the global economy now denominates goods and services in Bitcoin (i.e. your coffee will be 500 satoshis sir). Clear now that Bitcoin is the world’s de facto reserve currency. Sovereign states hold anywhere between 10k to 500k BTC. Individuals holding at least 1 BTC are considered rich. The “ultracoiners” holding more than 10 BTC are extremely wealthy. Forbes lists are now filled with cryptocurrency pioneers, and even publish its first edition of the Rich List in BTC equivalent terms.
2045 — Bitcoin is the base money of the world. Children will ask why there used to be 100+ currencies in the world and we had to change paper money every country we went to? Your kid works for 80,000 satoshis a month, and spends it on frivolous digital services on the latest VR game. Just as we wonder why our parents didn’t start flipping prime properties in the 1970s, your kid wonders everyday why their parents didn’t have the foresight to become a wholecoiner back in 2019.
Your life savings retiring at 65 years old is 0.17 BTC.