Here We Go Again — Bitcoin Surpasses Gold
Double-digit number of Bitcoin’s growth in October allowed BTC to outshine gold for the first time since June, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole draws attention.
The largest cryptocurrency closed October with an increase of 10.26%, interrupting a three-month series of falls. On the other hand, gold in October rose only 2.74% after falling 3.17% in September — the biggest drop since June 2018.
Prior to this, Bitcoin has been growing for five consecutive months from February to June, thus demonstrating the longest series of ups from August 2017. Gold fell in February, March and April and grew by 1.7% and 7.9% in May and June, respectively. In the same months, Bitcoin gained 62% and 25.89%.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin has a chance to surpass gold in November too, while optimism about the negotiations between China and the United States may become a factor in reducing demand for the precious metal. Traditionally, November is a good month for Bitcoin — in six cases over the past eight years, BTC has finished it positive.
In addition, in the past, Bitcoin was inclined to demonstrate strength six months before halving, the next of which will occur in May 2020. In November 2012, the Bitcoin block reward was lowered from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, and the rate rose from $5 to $16 in three months by mid-August. Similarly, the Bitcoin exchange rate jumped from $360 to $780 by June 2016 before the reward fell to the current 12.5 BTC in August.
Based on the above statistics, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin may rise above the recent high of about $10,350 in November and try to overcome the 2019 peak at $13,880 over the next months.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading around $9,170 on the Bitstamp exchange. A 28% price increase at the end of October was accompanied by an increase in trading volumes to their highest levels since February 2018. The subsequent decline occurred at reduced volumes, which may indicate its short duration. The 200-day moving average holds back a further downward movement since October 30 (chart top left). In the event of a breakthrough, the bullish scenario will be weakened. The analyst also notes that Bitcoin could not keep above the five-month moving average (chart on the right) at the weekend, and this is necessary to implement the bullish scenario.
Author: Marko Vidrih
Images, charts by Trading View, CoinDesk