Counting cosmic rays in Antarctica improves accuracy of real-time aviation radiation calculations
Aviation radiation and cosmic rays
The Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field protect us from a hostile space radiation environment:
- Galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is omnipresent. The GCR intensity varies with latitude, longitude, and time of year due to effects of solar activity on the interplanetary magnetic field.
- Solar radiation is significant during unpredictable and short lived solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
These energetic particles collide with gas nuclei in the atmosphere, leading to a complex shower of high energy radiation. A comprehensive scientific review of aviation radiation, including other sources such as lightning induced beams of x-rays, can be found here.
Excessive exposure to radiation can damage DNA and lead to long-term health effects such as an increased risk of cancer. This is a clear occupational health and safety issue for aviation professionals. Unlike other industries, workforce awareness, modelling, and measurements of the exposures is generally lacking. Our company and its partners are on a mission to change this.
Solar modulation and the heliocentric potentials
The Heliocentric Potential (HP) serves as a crucial parameter for quantifying the shielding effect of the interplanetary magnetic field against galactic cosmic rays. It varies with solar activity, known as solar modulation, which influences the intensity of cosmic radiation reaching Earth’s atmosphere. The HP value directly impacts the radiation dose at a given altitude, making it a vital factor in aviation radiation calculations.
At times, obtaining real-time HP data for aviation purposes can be a challenge. Updates are provided by agencies like the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA); however, delays in data release can hinder accurate radiation dose calculations for current flights, requiring re-calculation once the values are released.
How counting cosmic rays in Antarctica helps
The Global Neutron Monitor Network and database represent a collaborative effort among scientific institutions worldwide to collect and analyse data on cosmic radiation. Comprising numerous neutron monitoring stations strategically positioned across the globe, this network provides valuable insights into variations in cosmic radiation levels influenced by factors such as solar activity and geomagnetic shielding. These stations utilise sophisticated instruments to detect neutrons resulting from cosmic ray interactions with Earth’s atmosphere, offering essential information for understanding radiation exposure at different locations and altitudes. By pooling data from these stations into a centralised database, researchers can analyse trends, identify patterns, and improve predictive models for aviation safety, space exploration, and atmospheric science. This global initiative underscores the importance of international cooperation in advancing our understanding of cosmic radiation and its impacts on our planet.
Antarctica, with its minimal geomagnetic shielding thanks to its high latitude positioning, offers an ideal location for monitoring changes in the cosmic radiation impacting our planet. Neutron monitoring facilities, such as the one at Mawson station of the Australian Antarctic Division, provide valuable data on residual cosmic radiation (the neutron component) at ground level which is highly correlated with the heliocentric potential.
Machine learning to predict heliocentric potentials
Amentum Scientific has developed, tested, and deployed a machine learning (ML) pipeline that achieves real-time HP predictions by:
- Periodically synching our database with minute-wise neutron monitor data from the Mawson station;
- Cleaning data and handling outliers;
- Synching our database with historical heliocentric potentials provided by the US FAA;
- Training our model to determine the correlation between the neutron monitor data and the historical HP data; and
- Based on that correlation, predicting the HP values for dates that are not present in the FAA data (up to and including today’s date).
Our tests have shown better than 90% accuracy in the model’s ability to predict HP values. Predicted values (at the time of writing) are shown in the figure below.
What this means for our Aviation Radiation API customers
Customers of our Aviation Radiation API now automatically benefit from these current heliocentric potential values, allowing for more accurate radiation dose calculations for flights in real-time, without the need to recalculate at a later date.
Potential customers can learn more about the API, and sign up for a free 14-day trial to test integrations with their own software, via the link below. Please contact us at team@amentum.space if you have any questions or would like to discuss how we can help you automate your aviation radiation assessments.
