Hey Hillary, Welcome to the Long Slog
The New Hampshire primary is over, and one thing is as clear as a cold Bedford night: Secretary Hillary Clinton has a real race on her hands. Secretary Clinton struggled mightily among a key constituency of the winning Obama coalition: younger voters and particularly younger women. On Tuesday night, Sanders won voters aged 18–29 by 67 percentage points, and among all voters aged 18–64. Clinton also lost to Sanders among women, 44–55, according to New York Times exit polls. Clinton also lost independents 27–72.
For voters who said the most important quality in a candidate is honesty and trustworthiness, Sanders won by an astounding 91–5 margin. Voters who sought a candidate who “cares about people like me,” Sanders beat Clinton 82–17.
Put simply, Secretary Clinton has an image problem.
Despite millions of dollars, thousands of man-hours, and hundreds of events, Secretary Clinton has underperformed in the two states where she spent the most time campaigning. And while the Clinton campaign is eager to point to victories in the nominating contests ahead, national polling from last week spells trouble for Clinton as she clings to a slim 2-point lead over Senator Bernie Sanders(Democratic-Socialist) among Democrats nationwide. In December, Clinton’s lead on Sanders was a staggering 30 points.
To make matters worse for Secretary Clinton, upcoming caucus states will prove to be more challenging for her because, unlike with Sanders, Democrats are simply not energized to vote for her. Keep an eye on states like Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, and Maine. In these caucus states, which by their nature are comprised of a larger percentage of high-energy Democratic grassroots voters, Clinton will struggle (just as she did in 2008) to cobble together the support she needs for decisive victories.
The reason for that enthusiasm gap is both simple and devastating: voters do not trust Secretary Clinton. The Democratic primary has become a referendum on Secretary Clinton’s untrustworthiness.
Just this week, the FBI publicly confirmed for the first time its investigation into her unsecured private email server. Last week, the press began publicly asking Clinton to release transcripts of her paid speeches to the Wall Street firms she now publicly attacks. The kicker is, these transcripts only exist because she insisted they be made! Clinton’s open contempt for questions regarding these scandals only feeds these voter’s suspicions, and her refusal to be forthcoming reaffirms their beliefs that she is unethical and untrustworthy. It’s a vicious and unfixable cycle of her own creation.
Secretary Clinton’s intrinsic flaws as a candidate, coupled with the FBI investigation, may be what ultimately spurs a big-name Democrat alternative like John Kerry or Joe Biden to rethink this whole thing and throw their hat in the ring. As implausible as that may seem, there is still time for late entrants to get on the ballot.
But first, national Democrats will need to come to grips with the fact that their candidate is potentially flawed beyond repair, and that’s only now becoming clear.
