America Signals Taiwan and China

But is it the right move? Will the world follow?

This week the United States made a move in support of Taiwan. AP reports:

The United States has recalled its envoys to the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama after decisions by those nations to cut ties with Taiwan in favor of diplomatic relations with China.

This drew the usual indignant noises from China, and notably, a protest from Panama asking the US to respect its sovereign decisions.

Withdrawing its envoys to indicate Washington’s displeasure with countries switching diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would appear to be a concrete indication of support for Taiwan. Even more welcome were news reports in Taiwan indicating significant Taiwan input into the American discussion of the US response:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday said that it has been in close contact with the US government regarding the nation’s international space, after Washington summoned its envoys to three of Taiwan’s former diplomatic allies in Central America and the Caribbean.

This came the day after the US announcement. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in Taipei also stated it was in close communication with the US government on issues regarding its international space.

The US government move came in the wake of angry comments from Members of Congress over the changes, and the introduction of a bill to encourage the US to support Taiwan’s international space and enable it to join international organizations. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida even threatened to introduce a bill to cut aid to El Salvador.

This incident reveals many things. The US response came through the State Department, whose upper reaches have long been notorious for their pro-China views. That’s a positive sign of potential change at the top on Taiwan. Moreover, it also shows once again the strong Congressional support for Taiwan. Recall that the vote to pass the Taiwan Travel Act was unanimous.

However, despite its apparently toughness, the US response was limited to symbolic indications of its displeasure. No concrete punishments were meted out to either of the states that switched to Beijing or China itself. El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, two of the states singled out by the US in recalling its ambassadors, are members of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), an extension of NAFTA. Taiwanese businessmen operate in all the CAFTA states to take advantage of the agreement’s tariff arrangements with the US market, and could easily become targets of retaliation should the US forcibly punish these countries.

The diplomatic assault on the ROC’s position in the world has repeatedly presented the US with an opportunity to take concrete action against China itself. The US is engaged in a trade war with China and could easily have added further punishments, clearly indicating they were provoked by Beijing’s moves. If it wanted a symbolic move, it could have summoned the PRC ambassador, or recalled its own ambassador to Beijing. Instead the US choose to deflect its response to symbolic moves against smaller nations, nations it ostensibly enjoys good relations with. It also opened itself to charges of hypocrisy since the US does not recognize the ROC.

This lack of concrete reprisal against China is the central flaw in the US response.

This lack of concrete reprisal against China is the central flaw in the US response. Repeated failure to directly confront Beijing has enabled its influence to grow, unchecked. A recent Taiwan Sentinel piece on the activities of the Chinese embassy in Sweden observed that China’s embassies the world over are becoming more active and interventionist. Meanwhile China has piles of aid cash to offer less developed states, and overseas missions that are ruthlessly working to suppress Taiwan all over the world.

The US needs to direct its punishments at China, not at Taiwan’s former allies. Only concrete action can deter China’s drive to suppress Taiwan’s international space and status. Pro-Taiwan voices in the US and abroad should be directing effort at getting US policymakers to re-orient their thinking towards direct action on China, and to work on positive action to bolster the support of the ROC’s current diplomatic allies.

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