If China Occupies Taiwan…
A military, strategic, and diplomatic disaster for the US and its allies
“Once China establishes military bases on the island, then the Taiwan Strait could be closed to commercial traffic at Beijing’s whim for either political, economic or military agendas”
“Once China establishes military bases on the island, then the Taiwan Strait could be closed to commercial traffic at Beijing’s whim for either political, economic or military agendas,” longtime Defense News correspondent in Taiwan Wendell Minnick wrote on January 21st in The National Interest. Minnick’s piece is an overview of the military and geostrategic consequences of permitting China to occupy Taiwan. Yet, the loss of Taiwan would be a colossal setback for US foreign policy in ways that transcend its great military significance.
The economic consequences of a Chinese occupation of Taiwan are vast: seizure of high technology industries, China astride key trade routes as Minnick notes, and the loss of a key market for US firms, since China blocks its own markets from US competitors. Vaster still, though, are the diplomatic ramifications. For Taiwan is intimately bound up with other bogus claims arising from Chinese territorial expansion in East Asia.
In propaganda about the Senkaku Islands of Japan, which Beijing calls the Diaoyutai and invented a claim to in the early 1970s, Chinese expansionist writers claim that the islands were under the jurisdiction of local government in northern Taiwan in the 19th century, a complete falsehood. This connection to Taiwan implies that should China occupy Taiwan, it will immediately heighten its claims to the Senkakus, the next logical step. Beyond that lies Okinawa. Chinese claims to Okinawa seldom publicly surface, but occasionally officials let them out.
A Chinese occupation of Taiwan almost certainly means war between China and Japan over China’s expansionist claims, a war that will occur with the Taiwanese under occupation and unable to help. Indeed it is very likely that many Taiwanese will be forced to serve in the People’s Liberation Army.
Recall that the US has a security treaty with Japan and on several occasions over the last two decades announced that the Senkaku Islands fall under its purview. A war between China and Japan will almost certainly trigger US intervention, especially since the Chinese will be attacking bases on the island of Okinawa.
Just to the south of Taiwan lies another island nation that the US has a security treaty: the Philippines. China has already begun expansionist games with Philippine territory, including Scarborough Shoal and other Philippines islands. The US announced last year that it would be “a good ally” to Philippines if China invaded its territory.
Taiwan is separated from Philippines by the easily crossed Bashi Channel, and Chinese aircraft and ships based in southern Taiwan would have easy access to the channel. That strategic waterway not only connects the South China Sea to the Pacific, but is also a major location for internet cables. Should Taiwan fall into Chinese hands, it would enormously increase the pressure Beijing could put on Manila, and severely hamper US responses to any military action, since planes from southern Taiwan could reach northern Philippines in minutes. China conducted exercises in the Bashi Channel in 2015 and periodically flies aircraft through it.
Taiwan is more than just a problem for Philippines and Japan. Recall that the Republic of China (ROC) government, which administers Taiwan, also claims the entire South China Sea via its claim to be the lawful government of China, and occupies two major islands, Taiping Island in the Spratly Islands and Pratas Island just off China.
Should China occupy Taiwan, it would erase the ROC and its claims, and very likely grab the two islands that the ROC military occupies. This would strengthen its position against other claimants in the region, but particularly Vietnam. It would also position China to expand its South China Sea claims. There is nothing that prevents China from moving the nine-dash line further out or from declaring that new territories (such Philippines Islands in the Bashi Channel or the Japanese islands of Yuniguni and the Ishigaki group) belong within its confines.
Finally, though it is seldom mentioned in media commentary on the China threat to Taiwan, once China occupies Taiwan, a major strategic headache for China will be over. Resources, including official attention, will be freed up for expansionist pressure elsewhere — not just in the seas of East and Southeast Asia, but also against India, Nepal, and Bhutan, and for operations in Central Asia where China is already a major investor. China will also be free to begin focusing its might on the long-sought reckoning with Japan.
For too much of Asia, the Chinese dream is a nightmare of expansion. The US is bound up with these territorial claims, and prolonged conflict there will involve the US in military expenditure and very likely, in a series of wars. Wouldn’t it be better to ensure that these nightmare scenarios never play out by increasing US military and diplomatic support for Taiwan?
Wouldn’t it be better to ensure that these nightmare scenarios never play out by increasing US military and diplomatic support for Taiwan?
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