Time for the US to Give President Tsai a Hand
Does Washington really want a pro-China government in Taipei in 2020?
Imagine the faux-populist mayor of Kaohsiung, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) politician Han Guo-yu, promising as President to double Taiwan’s population by flooding it with Chinese. Imagine KMT President Wu Den-yi roiling relations with Japan by constantly raising the Senkakus issue and trolling Japan on the nuclear food issue. Imagine the headaches a pro-China president could create for Washington in the South China Sea. Imagine a pro-China President criticizing US gestures such as freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait, or opposing US Navy ships docking in Taiwan. Imagine local pro-China politicians interfering in Taiwan’s supply chain position, costing US firms millions.
All this could come true if in 2020, the pro-China KMT manages to wrest the presidency from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Could it happen? The most recent local election shows the power of the KMT’s old faction networks, organized by the longtime unofficial leader of the Taiwanese KMT, Wang Jin-pyng. Donovan Smith notes at The News Lens:
However, Wang, a local boy with a background in the local KMT political patronage factions... Those factions have their roots in the martial law era, when the Chinese KMT — recognizing they needed local support to maintain control — supported these patronage factions by offering them control of agricultural associations and credit unions, as well as the cash that ran through them, in exchange for loyalty.
Wang organized the local factions to work together to support the KMT candidates in the key races in Kaohsiung and Taichung. In addition, KMT mayor-elect Han Guo-yu positioned himself as a “populist” and “anti-elitist” despite being a scion of the authoritarian KMT, a mainlander, and legislator for several terms. Coming from Yunlin faction politics Han knew how to appeal to the working class. Han’s campaign was run by DPP turncoat Yang Chiu-hsing, a former chief of Kaohsiung county who reactivated his old networks there. Chen Chu, the popular DPP mayor of Kaoshiung, had neglected the former county areas. The campaign was overseen by KMT Chairman Wu Den-yi, a canny politician with experience winning in local areas.
The result of this “Taiwanization” of the KMT was a resounding victory. What does this portend for 2020?
The most likely candidate at this juncture is Wu Den-yi, the current KMT Chair. Wu held the KMT together during the Ma Ying-jeou administration, when Ma did immense damage to it. He likes to tell stories about how a fortune teller predicted he would be President. It is obvious he wants the job.
Wu is a Taiwanese, but he has worked for the KMT the whole of his political career. At the moment it appears unlikely that he could beat Tsai Ing-wen, the current DPP president. Yet the campaign he ran in the last election was smart and locally grounded. Though nationally unpopular, Wu cannot be written off. Voters are unhappy with the DPP’s performance, reforms such as the pension reductions have driven deep anger, and the continued wage malaise is a problem for the DPP’s support among the young. Disaster could strike: Taiwan could crown a pro-China politician president.
Disaster could strike: Taiwan could crown a pro-China politician president.
The KMT will not be able to position itself as the “stability party” as it has in the past. It is now overtly pro-China, and with the rapid expansion of Chinese power, a KMT president once again attempting to steer the island into China’s orbit can only harm the interests of Taiwan, the US, and Japan, while introducing a new and unstable element into East Asian politics. For example the KMT is already attempting to irritate relations with Japan over food issues. The new mayor of Kaohsiung, Han Guo-yu, has announced he will permit Chinese to purchase properties in the city. The KMT is well aware that time is not on its side. Its potential to introduce instabilities can only be heightened by that knowledge, and it will work to increase China’s influence over Taiwan. Washington needs to take this to heart.
The US should signal that it wants a pro-Taiwan, pro-democracy, pro-human rights party to remain in power. Currently that’s the DPP. It can do that in many ways — by praising Tsai’s commitment to stability in the straits, by sending ships and planes to dock and land here, by sending high-ranking officials to Taiwan to praise Tsai, or by economic and trade commitments which are clearly hinged on the continuance of a pro-Taiwan and pro-US presidency.
No virgins here: Washington has already stuck its fingers into Taiwan elections. Remember when the Obama Administration intervened against Tsai Ing-wen in 2012? The result was another four years of the Ma Administration, with continued pro-China drift, reluctance to upgrade military hardware, and roiled relations with Japan. This was an enormous error that harmed the interests of both Taiwan and the US.
Less than 18 months remain before the next election. If Washington wants a government in power that is committed to spending for Taiwan’s military, has good relations with Japan, and supports Washington’s efforts against China, it needs to move now.
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