How America Votes and Our Partners are Preparing to Meet the MAGA Surge

By Greg Speed, America Votes President

For much of this election cycle, conventional wisdom held that the 2022 midterm election would go very, very badly for Democrats. However, since the Dobbs decision decimated the right to reproductive freedom, Democrats have moved from a 3–4 percent deficit in generic congressional ballot polling into a small lead, and there has been additional data pointing toward Democratic momentum. New voter registrations have increased dramatically among women and Democrats, and Democratic candidates overperformed expectations in late-summer special elections.

These are good signs, but we cannot let our guard down. The fact remains that we have seen tremendously high Republican turnout sustained throughout the primary season and in polling. That’s why America Votes and our partners are redoubling our efforts to meet this MAGA Surge head on in November.

In 2021, supercharged Republican voter turnout delivered the Virginia governor’s mansion and assembly to the GOP. Democratic turnout was relatively strong compared to other odd-year cycles, but was no match for the red surge in rural Southwest Virginia and other deep red bastions.

2022 primaries have shown a clear continuation of this trend. Democratic turnout was respectable given a dearth of competitive primaries, but Republican primary turnout remained astronomical. GOP primary turnout sharply increased over 2018 in states like Arizona (+60%), Georgia (+98%), Michigan (+9%), Nevada (+42%), Pennsylvania (+84%) and Wisconsin (+52%).

For this reason — even with an energized and engaged Democratic base — the 2022 midterm is shaping up to be the closest midterm election we have seen in a generation. Close elections are won on turnout and it’s likely that Democrats’ prospects will be determined by young people, communities of color, and other historically marginalized communities.

To meet the looming MAGA Surge, America Votes and our state partners are building on our successful Get Out and Spread Out the Vote strategy that worked in 2020. That election was a turning point for elections in America. During the COVID-19 pandemic, states across the country expanded vote by mail and early voting. These changes opened up access to the ballot and paved the way to a Blue Surge that put Joe Biden in the White House and gave Democrats control of Congress.

2022 is the first midterm to take place since these voting rights expansions went into effect. Over the past two years, Republicans have worked hard to impose new hurdles to make it harder to cast a ballot, but in many key states there are still more options for voting by mail and early voting than in any previous midterm.

In conditions like this, a strong, well-organized, and coordinated ground game that turns out a broad and diverse coalition of voters is critical. According to our analysis, Democrats will need significant vote increases over 2018 to win. That’s why we’re hitting the streets, with a goal of 28.6 million knocks — a 47% increase in program size since the last midterm.

We’re proud to work with leaders across the country to turn out the last, best voter in every community. Together with more than 400 partners, we are educating voters across the country about all the opportunities to make their voices heard this November — from vote-by-mail to early voting to in-person voting on Election Day. We’ve already knocked on more than 11.5 million doors, and we are increasing exponentially daily.

The road ahead will not be easy. The MAGA surge that fueled GOP wins in Virginia in 2021 has continued in this year’s primaries and we must assume it will remain a high hurdle to clear this fall by mobilizing our voters to unprecedented levels for a midterm.

Events of the past two years, and especially the past six months, have created opportunities for Democrats, but the primaries indicate we also must assume tremendously high turnout of the MAGA Republican base. Winning will require matching MAGA with the unprecedented midterm turnout of the multiracial, pro-democracy coalition that defeated Trumpist Republicans in 2018 and 2020.

It won’t be easy, but we know that we can rise to the challenge. The stakes are too high for us to fail.