Trade Plan: Tuesday, August 8th, 2023
Are the bulls back?
Hi all! Back with another trade plan. Monday unfortunately a tiny red day for me, but back again as always hoping for some cleaner price action today!
Timeframe Overview
Monthly OTF: up, ends: 4411
Weekly OTF: balance; ends to the upside: 4622, ends to the downside: 4493
Daily OTF: balance; ends to the upside: 4561
Value Overview
Monthly value: above, VPOC 4604.25 (July) VPOC 4544.75 (August)
Weekly value: above, VPOC 4604.25
Friday’s value: above, VPOC 4544.75, TPOC 4540.00
Monday Session Recap
Let’s review what we had planned for Monday:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I will observe this critical 4500–4498 area as my pivot. Holding above 4500 targets 4528, the session halfback. Further, I’d like to see us revisit the VPOC of Friday’s session at 4545.
In the ON session, buyers were indeed keen to keep us away from this critical 4500 level. ES opened at 4516, within range and within value of Friday’s session. I was thinking that the 80% rule — an 80% probability for the market to traverse the previous day’s value area — was in play after both A period and B period closed above Friday’s VAL at 4515. I tweeted this idea out with my amazing twitter account that has so much engagement:
Alas, in C period, buyers had no followthrough above the IB high, acheiving just 5 ticks above to to 4530, barely even considered an IB extension. (Interesting to note is that the IB high of 4528.75 was just 3 ticks off from that 4528 level provided Monday!) We then consolidated down to the OR low at 4513.25 by the beginning of E period, but by the END of E period, were were starting to push back against the IB high again. For the remainder of F-M periods, it was a slow and choppy battle for this IB high, with buyers eventually winning out and baasing above that 4528.75 level. By M period we nearly hit the second target 4545, but fell short about 2 points at 4541.75. ES closed at 4538.25.
Market Structure
With Monday’s strength, I am saying that both weekly and daily OTF have shifted to balance, as sellers were unable to create a new low. Looking at Monday’s TPO, the session was quite balanced with some slight bias to the upside. Below 4512 is a a poor low from B period, as well as above 4537 a poor high from M period. Monday’s session provided a decent fill of most of the poor structure from Friday afternoon’s selloff. It’s now up to buyers to start building us above and back into higher highs of last week. Or will sellers make another stab at 4500?
Trade Plan
While it would appear that sellers were unable to push us below 4500, I’m not exactly convinced with yesterday’s price action that a quick return to highs are in the cards. In the ON session right now, we’re back down at 4523 already!
For Tuesday’s session, I will observe 4528, yesterday’s first bull level. This level seemed to put up quite a fight for both buyers and sellers, and I want to see if it clearly acts as support or resistance in today’s session. Above 4528 I would again target 4545 (the VPOC from Friday), then 4561 (clearing Friday’s high), then that 4570 level. Below 4528 I would target 4518, Monday’s VAL, then the key 4500, and then the remainder of the levels provided in Monday’s Trade Plan.
Key Levels
Pivot: 4528
Bull Levels: 4545, 4561, 4570
Bear Levels: 4518, 4500, 4480, 4472
Notes: VIX is back below 16, but keep an eye out anyway for chop! (I’m hearing this is typical for August.) Price action like Monday’s can get expensive :)
Trade Review
+$141. Had a morning 10 point 2 lot on the MES with a look below and fail of that key 4500. Used volume and delta to confirm. PT hit (scarily nearly with no ticks of excess):
Then in RTH I opened a short on MNQ (I know, left a lot on the table, but I’m still learning MNQ, and with one lot I decided to take profit at nearly 3R!):
With us being down over 1% on the session and price action very slippery, I don’t want to give back any profits today. Peace out!
I want to start sizing up, but with VIX back up dancing around 18, I don’t know if this is wise…
We’ll see.
Cheers and as always, good luck out there!
-Chris
A reminder that I am still ultimately a beginner to intraday trading and trading futures. This is not an alert service and none of this is financial advice.
Originally published at https://amtjoy.substack.com.
