Trade Plan: Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023
Another day, another 20 point range — yet opportunities abound.
Hi all! Back with another trade plan. Yesterday was red day for me unfortunately, I had some mistakes with execution and had poor entries on trade ideas that ultimately turned out correct! Today’s another day.
Timeframe Overview
Monthly OTF: up, ends: 4500
Weekly OTF: up, ends: 4560
Daily OTF: 10 day balance; ends to the upside: 4633; ends to the downside: 4557
Tuesday Session Recap
Let’s look at what we stated in the plan for Tuesday:
Going into Monday’s session, I will again observe 4609. This is the key level which we’ve rejected off a number of times at this point … Below targets the mental level of 4600, and then 4590 …
Look how these levels worked intraday yesterday, defining the IB high and low nearly to the tick, and the look below IB and fail in G period:
ES opened for business at 4599.25. In A period, buyers showed strength, and by B period we were approaching that critical 4609 level. However, buyers couldn’t manage to get us through 4609. Whether due to sellers noticing this and stepping in with strength, or the reaction to PMI prints somehow, we quickly sold off to 4591.50, creating what would be the IB low of the session. Longs here may have worked, though we only manated to look slightly above 4600 for the majority of the morning, and price action was incredibly slow. In G period, another opportunity presented itself in the form of a look below IB and fail (nearly to the tick of our 4590 level), which would have eventually turned into a nearly 15 point trade, as we slowly grinded higher, until L and M periods with yet more consolidation. ES closed for cash at 4601.25.
Market Structure
Like Monday, Tuesday’s session was bound to a tight range, so we again remain in balance. Note that we have no longer logged a higher low (4597 Monday to 4590.50 Tuesday), which could be important to take into account. In terms of market profile, Tuesday’s session appears to be nearly perfectly balanced, with a slight bearish bias (VAL high 4604, VAL low 4596, VPOC 4599). Buyers are still in control of the auction, but in terms of a weekly OTF up, we’re slowly drifting towards 4560, which would break that trend…
Trade Plan
Due to the mostly uneventful session, levels remain unchanged, though due to what seems like some weakness in the tape, I’m moving my pivot down to 4600. Going into Monday’s session, I will observe 4600. Above 4600 targets 4609 — this is the key level which we’ve still rejected off a number of times at this point, and haven’t been able to build sustainably above. Building above 4609 I would look to build at and above 4623, the VPOC from Thursday’s session (despite the selloff), and then above 4633 to form a new high for the year. Below targets 4590, which buyers have seemed to be eager to defend on multiple occasions at this point, including Tuesday’s session. Below 4590 targets 4580, last Friday’s pivot.
Key Levels
Pivot: 4600
Bull Levels: 4609, 4623, 4633
Bear Levels: 4596, 4590, 4580
Notes: Nonfarm numbers at 08:15, maybe this will bring some action to this slow summer tape.
Trades & Session Review
Coming at end of day Wednesday.
Cheers and as always, good luck out there!
-Chris
A reminder that I am still ultimately a beginner to intraday trading and trading futures. This is not an alert service and none of this is financial advice.
Originally published at https://amtjoy.substack.com.
