2021/22 Ashes Preview: Who will come out on top in this great series between the Oldest of Rivals? PART 2
*Data correct as of 27th November 2021
If you have a spare moment to help me grow this blog by sharing this article and/or following me on Twitter (@luke_lockley)
Today’s article focuses on my insights into the two bowling attacks. Please read my first article on my analysis into the two batting line-ups which you can find here.
Bowling
England
England’s attack over the last few years has been a lot more balanced. Injuries, travels to the subcontinent and the emergence of new players such as Ollie Robinson has seen the top 5 players contribute only 55% of wickets since 2019.
The bowling squad that England has taken to Australia this time around looks remarkably like the one used four years ago in 4–1 defeat. The brilliance of James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Chris Woakes has yet to shine through in Australia averaging 37, 35 and 50 with the ball respectively in this environment. The latter two will certainly be looking forward to the second test match in Adelaide where they both had success four years ago taking a combined 9 for 79 under the lights in the swinging conditions. On balance however, England have been searching for players more suited to extracting pace, bounce and movement on the hard flat Australian surfaces.
The squad can count themselves a tad unlucky with this search. Over the four years they have found players such as Jofra Archer and Olly Stone who have shown glimpses of suitability. Both unfortunately have picked up long-term injuries that have ruled them out. Injury is the theme when we look at another potential game changer in Mark Wood. Bowling regularly in excess of 90mph, Wood has shown to be a threat and is definitely suited to the Aussie style of play. When playing in similar conditions in South Africa at the end of 2019, he took 12 wickets across two matches averaging 13.58 runs per wicket. Although, Wood has found it difficult to stay fit for large periods of time and, as tempted as England might be, bowling him too much too early could mean his impact and effectiveness is negligible compared to his South African performance.
Another shining light for England has been the success Ollie Robinson has seen early in his test career. The Sussex man has taken 28 wickets at an average of 19.6 and an economy of 2.64 during the English summer. Despite this lack of express pace, his accuracy, control, and ability to extract bounce given his height are all attributes which will hold him in good stead in Australia. England’s success in this Ashes tour will come down to using the strength and depth of their bowling attack. They will have to smartly combine the use of more suitable bowlers in Wood and Robinson with the test experience of Woakes, Anderson and Broad. This means likely moving away from using Broad and Anderson across all five tests; a feat rarely employed by England outside of injury but, a feat that will be necessary to win the much coveted urn back.
Australia
One trend that encapsulates this Australian attack is stability. As the chart highlights, the Australian wickets since 2019 have come from a small group of bowlers. With the retirement of James Patterson and Peter Siddle, Australia will begin with a bowling attack consisting of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazelwood, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon. They have taken 88% of Australian wickets since 2019.
Parking Lyon for one moment, the three quicks are of the highest quality with all three bowlers averaging under 25 runs per wicket since 2019 putting them on par with the lifetime achievements of Shane Warne. Each offer complementary qualities; Starc with his left arm rapid swinging bullets, Hazlewood with his upfront bounce and nip, keeping things tight at a measly 2.6 an over and Cummins with his all-round ability averaging under 20 with an economy of 2.65 over the past few years. All three had great success when England last toured in 2017/18 . A scary proposition for an England batting line-up looking to find their form in Australia.
Now, turning to Nathan Lyon. The off-spinner holds this attack together, doing the hard yards to keep these wonderful quicks fresh to put pressure on batting teams. Lyon regularly bowls more than 20 overs per innings and continues to go at an economy of under 3 per over. The chart above suggests his patience is rewarded; Lyons’ bowling remains consistently successful even when bowling between 20–30 overs in an innings.
Outside of Lyon, the chart does reveal, as one would expect, as more overs are bowled, the average runs per wicket increases. For Cummins, Hazelwood & Starc all their averages worsen by more than 25% when bowling more than 20 overs in an innings. For Australia to retain the Ashes, the key must be to keep and rotate their three quicks to bowl under 20 overs per innings and utilise their off-spinner to do the “lyon’s” share of the bowling.
Conclusion
Australia has the clear advantage in the bowling department. This is not to say England have a poor attack, but relatively Australia has a quite outstanding foursome particularly in home conditions. They have three of the best fast bowlers in the world who have in the past had success against this fragile England batting line-up. They are glued together by the best off-spinner in test cricket who has the control to keep the scoreboard in check while the others work their magic. England’s game plan must be to try to survive with the bat as long as possible rather than score quickly. As shown, getting Starc, Cummins and Hazelwood into their third and fourth spells means their wicket taking ability diminishes significantly and hopefully will allow England to score. They must also be positive against Lyon, not allowing him to settle and control the run rate from one end.
Within their bowling England must utilise the pace of Mark Wood and extra bounce & accuracy of Ollie Robinson and get away from the temptation of using Broad and Anderson across all five test matches. Although the experience and quality of these two operators along with Woakes will be important, they shouldn’t form the focal point of England’s attack here and instead be rested & rotated across the test matches.
A final thought that might have a say across both sides is injuries. England have been hampered in the build up with Archer and Stone missing, but must do everything to keep all bowlers healthy particularly Mark Wood. Australia, on the other hand, could suffer even more if one of the four key bowlers were to go down. Only 6% of wickets since 2019 have been taken by other men than the aforementioned bowlers and retirees of Patterson and Siddle. This lack of depth at the highest level could very much put their whole attack under pressure and allow England to exploit the inexperience and unfamiliarity.
Regardless, I will be watching with great intrigue. I hope you will too.
Predictions
Result: 3–1 Australia (England to nab one in Adelaide)
Australian Batsmen to Watch: David Warner — his World Cup success will give him the momentum to be a thorn in England side
Australian Bowler to Watch: Pat Cummins — his all-round bowling ability is world class however it will be interesting to see how he copes with the pressures of captaincy
England Batsmen to Watch: Dawid Malan — although if Joe Root doesn’t have success England won’t stand a chance
England Bowler to Watch: Ollie Robinson — his extra bounce and accuracy will transfer well to Australian conditions and will provide England with both a wicket taking threat and control at the crease
