Are Some Games Already Set to Succeed?
A Look Into The Gaming Industry
Introduction
As an avid gamer, an Electrical Engineer, and a prospect Data Scientist, I always wondered if some game genres have a higher probability of success than others. I also wondered whether release dates, whether it be month or day, affect game sales and overall success. Does the console used affect which games succeed? Today, I will attempt to answer these questions, through data gathered from IGN.
The data from IGN covers ~19,000 games with release dates ranging from 1996 to 2016. This means there are many platforms included in this report, ranging from the Dreamcast, released by Sega in 1998, to the Playstation 4, which was released by Sony in 2014.
Interestingly, there has been a decline in games released per year between 2008 and 2016. Roughly 10% of the games released happen to be during 2008 (golden era of gaming!). Interestingly enough, the amount of games released in 1997 and 2016 is quite similar, ~1.2%. However, I suspect there was a surge in gaming in 2017 following Fortnite’s phenomenal success.
1. What are the main factors affecting a game’s score?
When I asked myself this question I was wondering if there are certain patterns to games having a high score, other than it being a ‘good game’. To my surprise, there are multiple indicators suggesting how some games will be scored and received by the gaming community.
Figure 2 shows the top 10 indicators a game would be scored high. Games which have been marked as an Editor’s Choice have a much greater chance of being scored higher than other games. This can be attributed to marketing and the fact that those games will often be found on homepages. Generally, it could be attributed to the fact that those games have more visibility.
Interestingly enough, and even though less games were released in 2016 than previous years, games have been scored higher in later years. An obvious reason would be the fact that games and engines quality has improved drastically in the past few years.
2. Are certain game genres more likely to be scored higher?
The short answer to this question is: YES! Interestingly enough, one of the strongest positive indicators relating to a high score are the genres of RPG and Strategy, which can be seen in Figure 2.
Figure 4 shows the strongest indicators that can affect a game score negatively, causing it to be rated lower than other games. Leading those features are the genres of Hunting and Party. However, what took me by surprise is the fact that holding the third spot, is the Wii console itself.
Another surprising find is the fact that the Action genre is also another negative driving force to a game’s score. The Action genre also happens to be the biggest one, making up close to 30% of the games released between 1997 and 2016. This leads to the genre being very packed, and therefore there is much more competition in that section making it more difficult to be scored higher.
3. Do game release dates affect how a game is received?
Even though when I asked myself this question, I had a feeling in my gut that release dates would affect how a game is scored, that did not turn out to be the case. In fact, the features release_day and release_month have the lowest weights in the whole dataset, which can be seen in Figure 4. This means they do not offer any indication whatsoever on whether a game would be scored either-way.
Unfortunately, this dataset does not include game sales, which leads me to pose the following question:
Do game release dates (day and month) affect game sales?
I suspect they would! From personal experience, as a student, I tend to buy more games around summer time, so there might be something there to explore!
4. Do certain platforms have generally higher scores?
Standalone console games, whether it be old ones like the Wii U and Dreamcast, or new ones like Playstation 4 and Xbox One, tend to have better scores than PC. This could be attributed to the fact that standalone consoles offer a level playing field.
The fact that PC users may have different experiences due to their hardware specifications could explain why console games are generally rated higher.
Also, many console offer exclusives, which tends to be a great success.
5. Which games tend to succeed on certain consoles?
I was wondering whether certain titles have a greater chance at success due to their genre and the platform they are released in, and that turns out to be the case! For this, I will focus on PC, Xbox One, and PlayStation 4.
Leading the highest average score spot is Simulation games for PlayStation 4.
Moreover, Compilation releases tend to have a high score, on all platforms. Compilation releases are when a gaming studio releases all previously released titles as a package. These seem to be very well received.
As stated in question 2 above, the RPG genre also creeps in here. The genre proves to be the most versatile one, and a strong indicator that a game would have a higher score.
Conclusion
- RPG, Strategy, and Platformer games tend to be scored higher than other game genres. On the other hand, Trivia, Hunting, and Party games tend to be scored the lowest.
- Release dates do not affect game scores. However, there is a chance they do affect game sales!
- Console games tend to be scored higher than PC games.
- Simulation games on PS4 tend to succeed.
- Compilation releases tend to also have a great score.
- RPG could very well be the most versatile genre, and a positive driving force for a game’s score regardless of platform.
To see more about this analysis, see the link to my Github available here.
