Corona Crisis : Part-1
The Invisible War.
We are all at war . But, this time our enemy is a microbe. Everything seems to be too cinematic to believe, and it’s completely okay. How to stop something that’s invisible, something that multiplies exponentially and something that has the potential to end lives. It has always been challenging to understand and visualize issues like this, the better we understand this pandemic collectively,the better the chances that we shall overcome this situation. So, let’s try and understand the following below, We are about to get into a journey.
- What is a coronavirus?
- The different forms identified in covid-19 and it’s lifetime on the different surfaces.
- Understanding the pandemic spread in a more standard and mathematical way (Trust me it’s easier to understand than it sounds).
1.What is a coronavirus?
A virus is a microbe or a biological agent, that reproduces inside the cells of the living being. Corona-viruses are Zoonotic , means the diseases that passes from animal or insects to humans, and humans further go on to involve in Human-Human transmission. We had SARS(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) 2003, MERS(Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) 2012 and Now Covid-19(Coronavirus disease 2019). SARS and Covid-19 are believed to be occurred first in China, particularly Covid-19 in Wuhan wet market of China. Covid-19 consists of an RNA(Ribonucleic Acid) covered in a shell of protein with strands(helps virus to survive out side the host for a considerable period of time). The Covid-19 looks like below.
Dr. John Campbell
2.The different forms identified in covid-19 and it’s lifetime on the different surfaces.
Dr. John Campbell
Now, the virus Covid-19 went through two changes in the mutation, the ancestral S type virus later branched in to L type virus, resulting in a dual existence. S type : milder, less infectious and L type : Severe, more infectious.This virus settles in throat tunnel and lungs. It is found as of January 21, 2020 that both S and L type are circulating in USA. 70% of the viruses that scientists in China looked at were L type, mainly in Wuhan.
How long can the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 survive on surfaces?
A recent study found that the COVID-19 corona-virus can survive up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.The researchers also found that this virus can hang out as droplets in the air for up to three hours before they fall. But most often they will fall more quickly.
Please go through the links attached at the end of the article, for the detailed insights.
3.Understanding the pandemic spread in a more standard and mathematical model (Trust me, it’s easier to understand than it sounds).
When a virus spreads through out the country, then it’s called epidemic. if it’s a case of multiple countries and continents then it will be a pandemic. Right now we are experiencing a pandemic, A total of 168 countries for now are affected, according top the John Hopkins interactive map.
So, Most of the the global health organizations like WHO(World Health Organization), CDC(The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and more, use a pandemic projection models like SIR(Susceptibles, Infected and Recovered) to understand the magnitude(rate of spread)of pandemics and plan for the immediate and future measures.
S = Susceptibles, are the people who could get infected, in other words ideally everyone.
Let us consider S(t) = Susceptibles at a given time , I(t) = Infected people at a given time and R(t) = Recovered people at a given time . Hence, S(t)+I(t)+R(t) = N. Where N can be the total population in a town or a city or a country. So, a Susceptible will get Infected and then Recover, that’s the flow. Hence, the models are built considering the above variables with respect to time.
Brace up, Let us understand the SIR model in depth. As I said before the concept is easier that it looks.
Now, what is this d, what are these constants β and γ. You do not have to really know them, to understand the motive of the image presented to the left. But, still I will explain what’s needed. Now a system of differential equations would be carried out on these three functions (S,I,R). A differential equation is a rate of change with respect to a given time.
- Now, the above three equations explain that, over a period of time Susceptibles will become infected(Hence, the count in the Susceptible gets deducted, -βSI)
- The infected people will be recovered.(Hence, the recovered count will be deducted from the infected count who was once susceptible, βSI- γI).
- Eventually everyone will be recovered over a period of time (Hence, γI).
The visualization of the above explanation looks like below, Sharing the graph for the intuition purpose .
The graph represents the proportion of a population against time.We can see that the blue S susceptible non-linear curve falls down and later becomes Zero over a period of time. We can see the red I infected and black R recovered lines behave together. over a period of time, as black line reaches the maximum proportion the red line reaches the minimum. In the other words “No more infections and all are recovered.”
The above trend is same for any country that contracts pandemic including India. Mainly, hot temperature seems to be having no affect on Covid-19. The virus is spreading anyways.
- At present, the pandemic is resulting in an exponential increase of the infected hosts. The below graph represents infections against time.
In Crona Crisis : Part -2 I would be further exploring the points .
- Ways to stop the spread of a pandemic(covid-19).
- why is this pandemic going to change our way of living in the coming months or years?
Reference links :
