Test Cricket Trends : A Data Overview with Python : Part 2
Continuing my previous blog post on “Test Cricket trends : Data Overview with Python” featuring the evolution of Batsmanship in Test Cricket over last 150 years through a Data Prism, in this blog post, I will be sharing insights focusing on the another facet of this beautiful game — “Bowling”.
If you like to read more on the earlier blog, which contains insights around spread of the game of Cricket gradually to the subcontinent and how it has allegedly become a Batsmen’s game and many more such insights.
When one comes to think of bowling in a cricket match, an enitre gamut of bowling legends flashes before eyes ranging from Glenn Mcgrath, Donald to Anderson for my generation, while it surely ranges from Roberts to Mcdermott and Willis for the generation prior and many more who have donned whites for their country over the years.
1. Dismissal Types and their distribution:
Today there are more than 10 ways for a bowler to dismiss a batsman in a cricket match. As a bolwer though, the sound of the timber (“Bowled Out”) is something that is most pleasing to the ears.
Even without any data at hand, one can easily tell LBW, Bowled and Catchout would be among the most likely ways of getting out in a cricket match.
Lets data dive.
The Dataset here consists of all the test matches played over last 145 years, web scraped from ESPNCricInfo.
Insights from Data :
A. Caught Out remains overs all these years, the single most likely way of getting out.
Last 3–4 decades have seen a whopping 60% of the batsman getting caught out.
B. There is a steady drop in percentage of “Bowled Dismissals” over the years.
Getting bowled used to be equally likely (40–42%) a way to Catch out, way back in 1800s. But today only close to 16–17 % batsman get bolwed out. The drop seems readily attributable to rise in LBW dismissals over the years.
C. LBW Dismissals : Steady rise can be witnessed in LBWs, which in the current era are equal to the “Bowled Dismissals”.
Rise from (5–6%) in 1800s to 17–18 % from year 1980 onwards. Various important changes are to account for this rise in LBW dismissals.
LBW Rules important changes :
1935 — batsmen could be dismissed lbw even if the ball pitched outside the line of off stump.
1972 — batters to be out lbw in some circumstances if they did not attempt to hit the ball with their bat.
1990 — availability of television replays and, later, ball-tracking technology to assist umpires has increased the percentage of LBWs.
D. Stumping dismissals can be seen reducing to 2% down from 4% in the previous era.
Since stumping is a dismissal type, for only the spin bowlers, this may well indicate lesser share of wickets for spinners in last few decades globally. Something for another day..
Or maybe this is an indication of batters either playing more from the crease or being too comfortable against spin to get dismissed stumped.
E. Hit Wicket, Obstructing the field, Handle the ball and retired hurt have their share as less than 1%.
Extras Conceded per 100 Overs of bowling.
Extras conceded by a bowling team are a boon to the batting side. Though the absolute number extras conceded is a function of overs bowled in an innings, I’ve normalized it to “Extras Conceded per 100 Overs”, just to make them comparable over deacdes.
Lets dive into data.
Trends from Data :
Extras conceded is inversely proportional to a Bowling unit’s discipline.
Graph shows the bowlers having been more consistent in the pre-ODI era (1870–1960), as we see a linear rise in the later years and then shows signs of improvement in last two decades.
Can this late improvement be attributed to advent of T20 cricket and rules which heavily penalize bowlers with rules like “Free Hit” ?
*1910s decade can be left as an exception, since only a few matches could be hosted due to WW I.
Enforcing follow-ons is now a thing of olden times..
In the early days of cricket, given a difference of run margin as provided for by rules, Follow-on used to be a mandatory thing unlike today where a bowling team can decide whether it wants to enforce the follow-on.
In 1980, the law was changed and decision to inflict the follow-on was made optional and a prerogative of the bowling team captain.
Historically, the team inflicting follow-on upon the opposite team used to firm their grip on match psycologically, and as good as an unwritten rule, used to go on and win the match, by pushing the opposition batting unit into a coocoon, under humongous pressure.
Matches like the famous Kolkata miracle of 2001 must also have contributed somewhere to change the psyche of cricket captains across the world. And now With batsman getting more courageous, teams getting morally stronger over period of time, its time to data dive.
A steep downward trend can be observed decade-on-decade.
Batter and Bowler Favorite Grounds :
A Pitch characetrizes a cricket venue in more ways than one. It determines the kind of game that will be played on the surface, in essence determines whether the batsman will dominate the bowlers in a game or the other way round.
Needless to say batters love good batting conditions and venues which see a lots of centuries being scored. On the other end of the spectrum, on a bwoling friendly pitch, its nearly impossible for a batsman to get to a 3 figure mark.
Lets have a look at Favorite hunting grounds for both of them.
Point worth Noting again are :
1. 3/5 “Highest Centuries scored per match” grounds are located in the Indian subcontinent.
2. 2. Only 1/5 “Lowest centuries scored per match” entrie features an Asian Venue.
Needless to say Asian cricket Venues are a “Batters’ paradise”, while South Africa/New Zealand prove to be “Advantage Bowlers” !!
Would love your feedback on this piece and also on what more analysis would you like to see on Cricket Stats.
Thanks for reading! Share it with all the cricket buffs….
