A Glacial Chess Match

We made it to the Final Four and so did Michigan and Loyola-Chicago! Let’s take a closer look at the game between the Ramblers and the Wolverines.

Loyola-Chicago and Michigan play at a nearly identically slow pace, but achieve desirable results in slightly different ways. If you ever assumed ‘slow’ games somehow translate to ‘boring,’ this matchup should prove otherwise. Let’s dive into the relationship between efficiency and pace for these two teams.

How Slow Is Slow?

These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NCAA. Loyola-Chicago averages 66.6 possessions per game, ranking #338 out of 351 Division I teams. Michigan also plays a slow game, ranking #330 at only 67.4 possessions per game. Let’s look at the speed traps in more detail.

These graphs look at the delta between a team’s possessions in a half and the team’s average possessions per half (over the last 10 games) as compared to their opponent during the same window.

Although Michigan likes to play a slower game, they played higher-possession games (approx. +1.5 possessions per half) as they progressed into the postseason.

Loyola-Chicago, on the other hand, has been more consistent at controlling pace. In fact, as the regular season ended they were playing almost 2.5 possessions slower per half.

Slowly But Efficiently

As things slow down, each team has to find ways to optimize each possession — both offensively and defensively. This optimization is often referred to as efficiency.

An accepted equation for offensive efficiency is as follows:

Total Points / (Field goal attempts — Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (.475 x Free Throw Attempts))

While this metric is informative, it blurs the source of attempts and points. Both teams are pretty similar in their overall offensive efficiency, let’s look at some key stats within offensive efficiency to get a clearer picture of how each team uses their few possessions wisely.

• Loyola-Chicago shoots 50.8% overall from the field (#2 in NCAA) and 40.2% from three-point range (#11 in NCAA). On the downside, the Ramblers average 12.5 turnovers per game.
• Michigan isn’t quite as efficient in terms of shooting at 46.5% overall (#64 in NCAA) and 36.1% from three-point range (#106 in NCAA) but they average more shot attempts — 56.9 FGA per game including 24.5 3 PT FGA per game — largely due to their ability to take care of the ball better. Michigan averages only 9.2 turnovers per game, which ranks second fewest in the NCAA (out of 351 teams).

Tax Collectors

Next, we look at how opponents of these teams are affected by the deliberately slow pace.

This data shows the delta between an opponent’s incoming average (last 10 games) vs. their performance in the game broken out by each half. This is a simple view of expectation vs. outcome.

Knowing the Ramblers have the hotter hand from three-point range but can be sloppy with the ball, how might Michigan respond?

• Fact #1: Michigan imposes a 19% tax on their opponent’s three-point attempts per game in the first half, meaning their opponents attempt 19% fewer three-pointers per half than usual when staring down the Wolverines’ perimeter defense. And if you do manage to shoot the three on Michigan, you’ll get hit with another 11.3% tax on your three-point percentage (both halves averaged).
• Fact #2: You better take care of the rock against Michigan and keep it up, as they are currently forcing 10% more turnovers in the second half of games. They are tougher in the 2nd half. (In fact, they are #3 in the NCAA at steals.)

Meanwhile, Loyola-Chicago did a bang-up job breaking down Kansas State’s motion to punch their ticket to San Antonio, and also lured Nevada into some poor shot selection before that. Given that the Wolverines are stacked defensively, what can the Ramblers do to prevail?

• Fact #1: Like Michigan, the Ramblers can defend the three — imposing an 11.8% reduction on opponent’s three-point shooting percentage (both halves averaged).
• Fact #2: Add one more tax of 8.4% for opponent shooting percentage at the rim. Loyola-Chicago is flat out disruptive on the defensive end — frustrating their opponents and provoking poor shot attempts.

Takeaway: Given all the perimeter work, there is going to be a premium on three-point makes. Focus on the quantity and quality of those attempts.

P.S. There are some wildcards in this game, specifically experience and Sister Jean. While we don’t have signals that quantify her impact on the outcome of the games, we do have stats on lifetime player minutes.

Loyola-Chicago has a slight advantage in terms of D1 playing minutes. They also have some lifetime minutes outside of college play. Does experience matter in the cavernous Alamodome? We will find out soon enough.