Can Africa Survive?
Welcome back to analyzing the World Cup with Google Cloud and the final day of group play. Tomorrow there are no matches, we have no idea what we are going to do with ourselves. Today our focus is on Group H for a match of utmost importance, specifically Columbia v Senegal.
Senegal can advance with a win or draw against Colombia. If Senegal loses, it can get in if Japan loses to Poland by a larger margin. Colombia advances with a win, but can only advance on a draw if Japan loses.
One team playing not to lose, the other playing for a win. This dynamic is always fun, especially if you like game strategy. Does Senegal stack the back and disrupt quality chances at the risk of giving up a too many chances? Does Colombia press up front at the risk of getting beat over the top by Senegal’s offense? Senegal will start out with a 4–4–2 formation and Colombia in 4–2–3–1.
Senegal is the last remaining African country with Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Tunisia all out of the tournament. Senegal are appearing at the World Cup for only the second time, having reached the quarter-finals on their debut in 2002.
Senegal features a strong defender Sadio Mané who scored in the team’s 2–2 draw, but given their formation in this match he may only be in play on set pieces. The 6'5" Koulibaly shifts back from his center position and will park the bus. In last breaking news today — Koulibaly might be getting transferred to Chelsea for a reported trade value of 100M euros, so he might be pumped up a bit more for this match. On the offensive front Mané is a powerful force, but has yet to show up thus far.
This is Columbias 6th World Cup appearance. Having not qualified in 2002 and 2010, Colombia faces pressure coming off of their quarter final run in 2014. They recovered nicely with a win over Poland after their opening meltdown against Japan with Carlos Sánchez Moreno being three minutes into the match.
Colombia is strong up front with Radamel Falcao, James Rodríguez and Juan Cuadrado. Falcao scored 21 goals in combined club play with Monaco and Champions League over 29 matches. Juan Cuadrado is a passing and crossing machine. Look for he Radamel to go to work together.
Prediction
Our Google Cloud powered player focused model has Colombia with a 46.6% win probability and 1.21 xG, Senegal with a 25.3% win probability and 0.86 xG and a draw at 28.2%.
We are in close agreement with 538 on this match.
With continent of 1.6B people — all eyes from Africa will be on Senegal and with a draw in their favor this will be a fun match to watch as they face off against the favored fire power of Columbia.
Enjoy the match.
