Expecting Xingu or Chimay?

Quarterfinal play is upon as as we continue our tournament long analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud. This post features the Brazil v. Belgium match — pitting one team (Brazil) who has conceded just one goal against another team (Belgium) with a World Cup leading 12 goals.

Belgium advanced by virtue of a tremendous comeback victory over Japan, scoring in stoppage time to take the match 3–2 after trailing 2–0 at the hour mark. Brazil weathered an early storm against Mexico, then eliminated them in rather routine fashion in a 2–0 victory.

If there were any lingering questions about Neymar’s fitness coming off a foot injury — they were dashed by a strong performance in which he was integral in both Brazil goals (scoring once and assisting once). Not only does Neymar lead World Cup in shots assisted (with 16), he also leads on-target attempts (with 12)

Nobody has scored more goals or created more xG (relative to our model) in World Cup play than Belgium (12 goals on 11.2 xG). They are led by a three headed monster of Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne — who are widely considered the most dangerous trios left in the tournament. Lukaku in particular is a huge scoring threat and continues to be in the running for The Golden Boot Award.

Brazil has now reached the quarterfinal round for the seventh consecutive World Cup. However, they are trying to avoid being eliminated by a European squad for the fourth consecutive time (knocked out by France in 2006, knocked out by Netherlands in 2010 and knocked out by Germany in 2014).

Brazil has reached this point with a mix of their trademark attacking play and some really elite defense. Their attack has certainly not been starved for chances, 2.29 xG per game is second only to the Belgians at this World Cup — however, their finishing has not quite matched as that has only led to 1.75 goals per game. This has yet to be problematic for the Brazilians though as they’ve boasted one of the tournament’s best defenses; 0.25 goals conceded per game is level with Uruguay for best in the tournament and 0.57 xG conceded per game is good for 3rd.

Whether it’s injury, fatigue or suspension, player attrition is always a factor at this point in World Cup play. For this particular matchup, Brazil will be without the services of one of their key defensive midfielders, Casemiro (who has logged 330 minutes, starting all four games), as he serves a yellow card suspension. While we won’t know for sure until lineups are released, it seems likely that Fernandinho a similarly defensive minded midfielder (who has appeared as a substitute in all four of Brazil’s games) will slide in as a like-for-like replacement.

Predictions

Our model favors Brazil, giving the Seleção almost a 2–1 advantage with a 64.7% win probability — advancing to the semis (on 1.77 xG); Belgium has a 35.3% win probability(on 0.95 xG projected).

Google Search gives the edge to Brazil (in 90 minute full time) and also gives a nudge towards the match going into extra time.

538 similarly also gives the upper hand to Brazil.

Bing is nearly identical to 538’s model

Enjoy the match with a Xingu or a Chimay, but never both at the same time.