Finding Their Sea Legs
As quarterfinal play continues, we continue our analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud featuring a matchup between England and Sweden. Both teams are entering rarely chartered waters. England has advanced to a semifinal just twice — once in 1966 — the year they hosted and won their only World Cup — and once in 1990. Sweden hasn’t advanced to the semi finals since 1994 — and has never won a World Cup.
Neither team looked their part in the round of 16. England looked tired and beaten after Colombia scored an equalizer in extra time to level the match 1–1, but a 4–3 advantage in penalty kicks propelled England to their first quarterfinal in 12 years, dating back to the David Beckham run. Sweden slogged past Switzerland in a match that didn’t win any style points, but they made a deflection score by Emil Forsberg in the 66th minute stand up in a 1–0 victory.
This is the 25th meeting between the two nations — and the splits are nearly even — with 9 draws, 8 wins for England and 7 wins for Sweden. It is the first time the two teams have met in World Cup play since 2006. In fact, the last two World Cup matches ended in draws during group play — a 2–2 draw in 2006 preceded by a 1–1 draw in 2002.
England has been one of the strongest teams going forward thus far in the tournament; through the round of 16 their 9 goals was good for 2nd and from an xG perspective, their 2.20 per game has been good for 3rd. Their creation has come from a whole host of players with five currently averaging at least one shot assist per game. The scoring though has been a bit more concentrated; Golden Boot race leader Harry Kane has converted six of nine goals for the Three Lions. Thus far Kane has had the tournament of an elite poacher; converting from close range twice, finding himself in the right place at the right time to deflect a teammate’s shot in and converting three penalties; which speaks to the creative ability of the players around him. If England are able to break down the well drilled Swedish defense, it’s likely that Kane will apply the finishing touches, but it will take a team effort.
Speaking of that well drilled Swedish defense, they’ve only conceded twice at this World Cup — both coming in a 2–1 loss to Germany. That 0.5 goals conceded per game is good to tie them for 3rd in the World Cup; though their 1.12 xG conceded per game is only good for 12th. Some of this difference is down to suspect finishing, some of it is good goalkeeping, but most of it comes back to the Swedish defense; they’ve blocked more shots than any other team in the tournament. Iceland sat back, defended and blocked 6.3 shots per game in their brief run, Sweden though are a whole shot higher at 7.3 shots blocked per game.
It seems almost every match at this point in World Cup play includes injury and/or suspension news, and this particular showdown is no different. Sweden’s Mikael Lustig will not play due to yellow cards. The right back will have to watch his mates try to fortify their defensive efforts without him.
Predictions
Unsurprisingly, our model favors England, giving Gareth Southgate’s side a 62.6% chance (1.96 xG projected) of advancing compared to 37.4% (0.94 xG) for the Swedes.
Google Search gives a slight chance of extra time, but still heavily favors England.
538 likes England and is closest in line with our predictive model
Bing also favors England but gives Sweden a little more opportunity
