From Russia With Gloves
Authored By: Steve Sandmeyer
The knockout round brings tons of drama with it as we continue our analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud by previewing the host country Russia taking on World Cup power Spain.
How much can a team gain from home field advantage? We’re about to find out. Russia is a massive underdog against Spain, but playing a knockout match in front of a home crowd on an international stage is a unique opportunity for anyone, so expect intensity levels to be at an all time high.
The history of hosting a World Cup reveals six occasions in which the host country won. Uruguay in 1930, Italy in 1934, England in 1966, West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978, and France in 1998. Uruguay (2), Italy (4), and Argentina (2) all have multiple World Cup titles, and all claimed their first title the year they hosted the event.
There have been several surprise performances provided by host countries over the years:
- Switzerland shocking Italy during group play in 1954
- Sweden beating Russia and West Germany en route to a runner up finish in 1958
- Chile finishing third overall when they hosted in 1962
- England winning their one and only World Cup the year they hosted in 1966
- United States reaching the round of 16 in 1994
- France riding the back of Zinedine Zidane to a World Cup title as the host in 1998
- South Korea finishing a surprising fourth place overall as co-host (with Japan) in 2002
Other host countries failed to take advantage on their home soil:
Mexico losing in the first round of knockout play as a host in 1970
Spain failing to get out of the second round in group play (2 group rounds back then) as a host in 1982
South Africa failing to get out of group play as host in 2010
Brazil finishing fourth after a catastrophic semi-final 7–1 loss to Germany as host in 2014
Spain won Group B by virtue of the tiebreaker over Portugal with 5 points and 6 goals. After opening with a wildly entertaining 3–3 draw with Portugal — Spain narrowly defeated Iran 1–0 and were fortunate in a draw 2–2 with Morocco. Russia got the host country treatment, being set up with Saudi Arabia in their Group A opener to the tune of a 5–0 victory. They then defeated Egypt 3–1 before getting blasted by eventual Group A winner Uruguay.
How will both teams respond after sputtering in group play? Spain was fortunate to edge Iran and questions surrounding their defense persisted after the draw with Morocco. Russia was obliterated by Uruguay in their final group match — mustering just 3 shots — fewest for a host country in a World Cup match since 1994 (when USA managed just 3 shots vs Brazil).
Spain has scored twice or more in 9 of their last 11 World Cup matches — but manager Fernando Hierro is none too pleased his squad has managed just 5 goals their past 3 matches. He also dropped star player Sergio Ramos from penalty kicks.
Russia is hoping to play the hot hand in the form of Artem Dzyuba, who oddsmakers like to score:
But make no mistake, Russia will have to play a vastly superior brand than the one they showed in the 3–0 loss to Uruguay, which included being a man down and scoring an own goal. Critics are quick to point out Uruguay was the first quality opponent for the host country that was served a couple of appetizers beforehand in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Prediction
Our model shows a 68.8% win probability for Spain and a 31.2% win probability for Russia. Expected goals: 1.25 xG for Spain and 0.79 xG for Russia. We are closest to Bing on this match.
Google Search leans on Spain and gives extra time (or shootout) a puncher’s chance
538 heavily favors Spain despite playing the host country
Bing is similar in its belief Spain will oust the host country.
Enjoy the match!
