Mama Said Knock You Out

Authored by: Steve Sandmeyer

At last…the round of 16 is upon us. No more draws, no more goal differentials, no more tie-breakers (other than extra time and penalty kicks). The knockout round. Win or go home. Fight or Flight. (Feel free to insert your own cliche here…)

Uruguay vs Portugal is our featured match as we continue our analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud. We continue to refine our player focused model. See tl/dr graphic below if are lazy or too busy to read the rest of the article. ;-)

How did each team get here?

Uruguay blasted through Group A, winning all 3 matches and completing group play with a clean sheet throughout (1–0 over Egypt on 6/15, 1–0 over Saudi Arabia on 6/20, and 3–0 over Russia on 6/25). They joined Croatia as the only team to win all three group matches. Critics will cite a pretty smooth path out of Group A for the Uruguayans, but the fact remains they did not concede once in any of their three matches. Portugal drew even with Spain 3–3 in their Group B opener on 6/15 — widely regarded as a match for the ages — then defeated Morocco 1–0 on 6/20 before a lackluster 1–1 draw with Iran on 6/25.

Simply put, Cristiano Ronaldo was brilliant his first two matches for Portugal before reminding us — he is human after all — with a subpar performance against Iran (by Ronaldo’s lofty standards). But there is approximately zero concern surrounding Ronaldo’s potential to return to superhuman form in the knockout round. As if Ronaldo needed any additional motivation, he is still seeking the net for the first time in the round of 16

“Cristiano Ronaldo has so far failed to score a single goal for Portugal in the knockout stages of the World Cup: 424 minutes, 0 goals.”

Uruguay may not have a megastar like Ronaldo, but they do possess an immense attacking pair in the form of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. Additionally — lesser competition in group play or not — they have yet to allow a goal. Interestingly, Uruguay has kept up with Portugal’s scoring pace, as each team has netted 5 goals thus far. However, they are doing so in a dramatically different way than their counterpart.

All five of Uruguay’s goals at Russia 2018 have been scored from set pieces (three from corners, 1 from direct free kick and 1 from an indirect free kick). Meanwhile, three of Portugal’s last four goals have come from outside the box.

Despite tons of crossover and player familiarity between the current squads, this is only the third time Uruguay and Portugal have squared off — and are doing so for the first time since 1972.

Prediction

Our model estimates Portugal with a 56.5% probability of winning and Uruguay with a 43.5 % probability. Expected goals for Portugal at 1.18 xG and Uruguay at 0.96 xG.

Google Search is close across the board, including a tie after 90 minutes and a match into extra time and/or shootout

538 gives Portugal the slight edge — extra time and/or potential shootout notwithstanding

Bing gives Portugal the biggest advantage and is closest in line with our prediction

Enjoy the match!